\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 073 Shanghai Maling Aquarius Co.Ltd(600073) )
Event: the company disclosed that in the first quarterly report of 2022, the company realized revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / deduction of net profit not attributable to parent company of RMB 6.471/2.02/180 billion in 22q1, a year-on-year increase of - 4.27% / + 16.62% / + 11.78%.
Breeding and pork products are dragged down by pig prices, and the impact direction of 22q2 epidemic still needs to be continuously observed. In terms of business, beef and mutton / pig breeding / pork products / canned food / comprehensive food / other businesses achieved revenue of RMB 39.0/2.0/9.3/5.0/4.2/520 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 8.1% / - 50.8% / - 37.4% / + 1.1% / - 4.2% / + 56.7%. The revenue of pig breeding and pork products decreased significantly due to the low price of pigs. The beef and mutton business has achieved rapid growth driven by the high price of red meat. Looking forward to 22q2, the company is located in Shanghai and is greatly affected by the epidemic. On the one hand, the epidemic affects the shipment and dynamic sales: 1) the personnel of the canning factory are sealed and controlled, and the production capacity is limited; 2) the logistics of sushi business is blocked; 3) the catering has not been restored, which also affects the dynamic sales of canning and other products; on the other hand, the company has entered the Shanghai guarantee list, and the inventory has been greatly reduced. Therefore, the impact direction of the epidemic on the company still needs to be continuously observed.
Profitability increased year-on-year, and the loss per ton of aquaculture business is expected to narrow. In 2021, the gross profit margin was 13.80%, year-on-year + 2.44pct, and the sales / management / financial expense ratio was -0.53 / -0.19 / + 3.49pct respectively year-on-year. As a result, the net profit margin was 3.12%, year-on-year + 0.56pct, and the profitability was steadily improved. According to the company's communication, it is expected that the price of beef and mutton may peak and fall in 2022. At the same time, due to the limited output of animal husbandry in New Zealand, it is difficult to supplement the price by quantity, and the shipping cost is not locked, or the cost of beef and mutton may increase. Therefore, the profit of beef and mutton business may decline slightly compared with the same period. In terms of pig breeding, pig prices may stabilize and recover in the second half of the year, the company's breeding income is expected to increase, the ton cost may be maintained at about 14 yuan / kg, the ton loss is expected to narrow, and the elasticity is prominent. In addition, the new leader of pig breeding business will adjust the personnel management, personnel team and incentive methods after taking office, and the breeding efficiency is expected to be further improved.
Silver fern China has developed steadily, and the volume of Su Shi's Prefabricated vegetable business can be expected. Silver fern China has gradually laid out the C-end, constantly sorted out and adjusted dealers, and expanded its channels from imported supermarkets to online channels, such as jd.com, with overall steady development. In terms of prefabricated dishes, sushi Huai'an meat phase II new plant has been completed and put into operation. At present, it has a production capacity of 15000 tons. It is expected to be used as a customized processing platform for the central kitchen to overweight the prefabricated dish business, and the volume can be expected.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company's earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 to be 0.35, 0.40 and 0.43 yuan respectively, maintain the investment rating of overweight-a, and the 12-month target price is 8.45 yuan, which is equivalent to the dynamic P / E ratio of 21x in 2023.
Risk tip: the downward trend of pork is less than expected, food safety and epidemic recovery are less than expected.
