\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 304 Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) )
Events
On the evening of April 28, 2022, the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022: the company’s revenue in 2021 was 25.35 billion yuan, an increase of 20.14% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.508 billion yuan, an increase of 0.34% at the same time; Deduct non net profit of RMB 7.373 billion, an increase of 30.44% at the same time. In 2022q1, the revenue was 13.026 billion yuan, an increase of 23.82% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.985 billion yuan, an increase of 29.07% at the same time; Deduct non net profit of RMB 4.898 billion, an increase of 28.53% at the same time.
Key investment points
It accelerated month on month in the fourth quarter, and the reservoir effect was obvious
The company’s revenue in 2021 was 25.35 billion yuan, an increase of 20.14% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.508 billion yuan, an increase of 0.34% at the same time; The deduction of non net profit was 7.373 billion yuan, an increase of 30.44% at the same time, which was due to the profit and loss of non current items, especially the income from Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) fair value decreased by about 2 billion yuan at the same time. Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 3.408 billion yuan (with an increase of 56%), the net profit attributable to the parent was 295 million yuan (with a decrease of 0.5%), and the non net profit deducted was 523 million yuan (with an increase of 2860%). The gross profit margin in 2021 was 75.32% (basically the same), of which 2021q4 was 77.85% (with an increase of 21pct), which was caused by the optimization of product structure, especially the force of dream series; The net interest rate in 2021 was 29.64% (with a decrease of 0.2pct), of which 2021q4 was 8.62% (-36.29pct), which was due to the sales expense rate of 39.37% (with an increase of 19pct, due to the increase of employee salary and promotion expenses in the fourth quarter). In 2022q1, the revenue was 13.026 billion yuan, an increase of 23.82% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.985 billion yuan, an increase of 29.07% at the same time; Deducting non net profit of RMB 4.898 billion, an increase of 28.53% in the same period, the first quarter started well as scheduled. At the end of 2021, the contract liabilities were 15.8 billion yuan, an increase of 9.3 billion yuan month on month; At the end of 2021q1, the contract liabilities were 9.8 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 6 billion yuan and a year-on-year increase of 3.6 billion yuan. The reservoir effect is becoming more and more obvious. Business target for 2022: achieve the same increase of operating revenue by more than 15%.
The product structure was continuously optimized, and the proportion outside the province continued to increase
In terms of products, the revenue of medium and high-grade wine products in 2021 was 21.521 billion yuan (with an increase of 22%), accounting for 84.9% and the gross profit margin was 81.28% (with an increase of 1.4pct), which was due to the continuous optimization of product structure, especially the increase of the proportion of blue classics. The revenue of ordinary wine was 3.118 billion yuan (with an increase of 16%), accounting for 12.3%, and the gross profit margin was 46.32% (with an increase of 9pct). From the perspective of volume and price, the sales volume of Baijiu in 2021 will be 184000 tons (increased by 18%), and the corresponding ton price will be 132800 yuan / ton (increased by 2%).
In terms of subregions, the revenue of the province in 2021 was 11.556 billion yuan (with an increase of 21%), accounting for 45.6% (with an increase of 0.6pct). The revenue outside the province was 13.083 billion yuan (with an increase of 21%), accounting for 51.6% (with an increase of 1.1pct), and the proportion inside and outside the province was 47:53.
By channel, the distribution revenue in 2021 was 24.274 billion yuan (with an increase of 21%), accounting for 95.8% (with a decrease of 7pct). Direct sales amounted to 365 million yuan (with an increase of 12%), accounting for 1.4% (with an increase of 1PCT). By the end of 2021, there were 8142 dealers, including 2950 in the province and 5192 outside the province. The change in the number of dealers is mainly due to the company’s focus on building strategic leading products and optimizing the structure and layout of dealers based on the principle of being close to business, securing business and supporting business and enriching business.
Four highlights in the future when starting a second business
2022 business plan: 1) product driven, with the work goal of “clearer product line, more focus on leading products, simultaneous appearance of high-end products and new planning of old famous wines”; 2) Promote marketing, realize the sinking of marketing institutions, focus on nationalization and high-end, expand the increment of Shuanggou and expensive wine, balance the market volume and price in the province, and optimize the product structure of large-scale markets outside the province; 3) Brand promotion, adhering to the “four high” principle of “high occupancy, high difference, high resonance and high reputation”; 4) Driven by organization, build a talent team for secondary entrepreneurship.
The company has implemented the equity incentive plan and put forward the assessment requirements of no less than 15% of the revenue in 2021 and 2022, so as to accelerate the return to the right track. At present, M6 + is the leading strategy and M3 crystal bottle is the following strategy. The upgraded products of sky blue have been listed. After the test of the Mid Autumn Festival and national day this year, they are expected to recover about 60%, and will be tested in the second peak season in the Spring Festival of 2022. Considering that the potential energy of Dream Blue has been formed, the volume of M6 + has accelerated, the recovery of M3 crystal bottle has accelerated, Haitian inventory is benign and the price is stable, we believe that it is natural for haizhilan and M9 to upgrade and replace, the drag of haizhilan on the growth potential energy of the company has weakened, and the company has accelerated into a benign development track.
Four highlights of the company in the future: first, M6 + is the future power engine of the company. Through M6 + in large quantities, we can achieve two goals: the sales caliber and financial caliber exceed 10 billion yuan; Second, the price band of 400500 yuan for M3 crystal bottle is expected to accelerate the recovery. Sea blue and sky blue ensure the basic stability of the market and move up the price band (it is expected that the sea blue band is 150200 yuan and sky blue band is Shenzhen Jt Automation Equipment Co.Ltd(300400) yuan); Third, revive the Shuanggou brand, and the sales volume of Shuanggou is expected to exceed 10 billion in the future; Fourth, Guizhou guijiu (purchased by Yanghe in June 2016) is expected to take a share and achieve rapid development under the current Maotai flavor fever. With m6+ gradually becoming the company’s new power engine, it will continue to consolidate the company’s top three position in Baijiu, and also provide a certain opportunity for the company to enter the high-end liquor camp.
Profit forecast
We believe that the company has entered a new stage and continue to be optimistic about the acceleration of the company’s return to the right track and the acceleration of marginal improvement. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 6.37/7.93/9.68 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 23 / 18 / 15 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk, epidemic drag on consumption, M6 + growth less than expected, m3 crystal bottle peak season less than expected, sky blue peak season less than expected, sea blue adjustment less than expected, Shuanggou brand growth less than expected, etc.
