\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 675 Yantai Dongcheng Biochemicals Co.Ltd(002675) )
Matters:
The company released its 2021 annual report, realizing a revenue of 3.912 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.42%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 152 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 63.72%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 130 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66.96%; EPS is 0.19 yuan / share. The company’s performance is in line with expectations. The profit distribution plan for 2021 is 1.50 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
At the same time, the first quarterly report of 2022 was released, with a revenue of 880 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.18%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 55 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.90%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 54 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.56%.
Ping An View:
The gross profit margin is affected by rising costs in the short term, and the provision of goodwill and negative investment income affect the performance of net profit. In 2021, the company’s revenue was 3.912 billion yuan (+ 14%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 152 million yuan (- 64%). The decline in net profit was mainly affected by the following factors: 1) the provision of 210 million yuan of goodwill of Dayang pharmaceutical and Zhongtai biological; 2) In 2021, the investment income accrued from the investment in a prinoia was – 1997 million yuan; 3) Affected by the rising cost, the gross profit margin of the company decreased significantly, and the gross profit margin in 2021 was 40.95% (-8.78 PCT). In 2021, the overall cost rate was well controlled, of which the sales cost rate was 15.14%, down 6.60 PCT.
The API business will increase revenue without increasing profit in 2021, and the gross profit margin in 22 years is expected to rise. In 2021, the revenue of API business was 2.266 billion yuan (+ 31%), of which the revenue of heparin API was 1.932 billion yuan (+ 34%), and the gross profit margin of API business was 16.83% (- 4.55 PCT), which was mainly affected by the rise in the price of crude heparin products. In 2022q1, the gross profit margin of API business rebounded significantly, with a revenue of 529 million yuan (+ 4%), and the gross profit increased by 57%. At present, the price of crude heparin has decreased steadily, and it is optimistic that the profitability of API business will recover in 22 years.
The nuclear drug sector maintained growth in 2021, and 2022q1 was temporarily affected by the epidemic and other factors. In 2021, the nuclear drug revenue was 1.084 billion yuan (+ 16%), of which 18F-FDG revenue was 398 million yuan (+ 24%), Yunke injection revenue was 324 million yuan (+ 4%), technetium standard series revenue was 99.55 million yuan (+ 18%), 131I revenue was 64.75 million yuan (+ 18%), 125I revenue was 152 million yuan (+ 36%). Affected by the epidemic situation in 2022q1, the growth rate of main varieties of nuclear drugs decreased, including FDG revenue of 84.74 million yuan (+ 2%), technetium standard drug revenue of 21.6 million yuan (- 5%), Yunke superimposed the impact of medical insurance, realizing revenue of 46.43 million yuan (- 38%). With the epidemic under control, we believe that the growth rate of nuclear drug products will gradually pick up. In 2021, the revenue of preparation products was 463 million yuan (- 27%), of which the revenue of nadroparin was 426 million yuan (- 31%), and the revenue of 2022q1 was 98.5 million yuan (+ 21%).
Continue to promote and pharmacy network construction, and nuclear drug innovation is about to reap the harvest. By the end of March 2022, the company has put into operation 7 single photon drugs and pharmacies, 18 positron and pharmacies, and 10 positron and pharmacies are under construction. It is expected that more than 30 nuclear pharmacies will be put into operation in the next three years. The strategic value of nuclear pharmacy network is outstanding. With more and more nuclear drug products on the market, its use efficiency will continue to improve. In 2021, the company invested 169 million yuan (+ 34%), of which nuclear drugs accounted for 61%. Among the key R & D projects, the clinical enrollment of sodium fluoride has been completed and relevant work before clinical summary is under way; The clinical work of Re-188 and Re-188 was completed; 99m Tc labeled tetrophosphine can submit the registration application after the official draft of 53 batches of reference issued by CDE; Lannacheng’s products are progressing smoothly. We believe that from 2023, the company is expected to gradually usher in the harvest period of nuclear drugs and help the company enter a new stage of development.
China is a leader in nuclear medicine. Innovation is about to begin to harvest. The profitability in 22 years is expected to recover and maintain the “strongly recommended” rating. The company has obvious leading advantages in the layout of nuclear medicine ecosystem, innovative products are expected to be gradually implemented, and PET / CT installation is expected to accelerate. However, considering the short-term decline of Yunke injection affected by the docking of medical insurance and the lower than expected installed capacity of PET / CT, we lowered the forecast of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 to 409 million and 530 million yuan (the original forecast was 512 million and 730 million yuan), and the net profit in 2024 is expected to be 680 million yuan. At present, it is estimated that it corresponds to only 20 times of PE in 2022, maintaining the “strongly recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) risk of API price fluctuation: the company’s heparin sodium API price is currently in a high shock, and once the price drops sharply, it will have an adverse impact on the company’s performance; 2) The volume of nuclear medicine products is lower than expected: the volume of stock varieties is affected by the installed capacity of PET / CT and the construction progress of nuclear pharmacy, which may be lower than expected; 3) R & D risk: the company is currently developing many varieties, which may lead to R & D failure or progress less than expected.
