\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 01 Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) )
Key investment points
Event: on April 27, 2022, the company released 2021 annual report and 2022 first quarterly report. In 2021, the total operating revenue was 3.652 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.51%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.263 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.01%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.191 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 91.90%. In 2022q1, the total operating revenue was 871 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 215.75%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 274 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 987.71%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 248 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 276378%.
Covid-19 contributed significantly in 21 years, 22q1 conventional varieties recovered and pcv13 increased. In 2021, the company’s revenue increased rapidly. Covid-19 vaccine was put on sale in June, contributing about 50% of its revenue. Quarterly, 21q4 achieved a revenue of 1.276 billion yuan (+ 51.73%), a parent of 227 million yuan (- 7.60%), and a net interest rate of 17.81% (- 11.43pp). It is expected to be related to the price reduction of covid-19 vaccine, the run on conventional varieties by covid-19 vaccination, cost sharing, etc. 22q1 achieved a revenue of 871million yuan (+215.75%), a return to the parent of 274million yuan (+987.71%), and a net interest rate of 31.40% (+22.28pp). Due to the change of epidemic prevention policy in the past 22 years and the company’s channel reform, the sales of conventional quadruple vaccine and hepatitis B vaccine began to resume. At the same time, the new pcv13 began to contribute new increment under the preparation of Q4 distribution last year.
Covid-19 vaccination reduced the sales cost, and other rates remained stable. In 2021, the company’s sales expense was 578 million yuan (- 34.17%), and the sales rate was 15.83% (- 23.01pp). Covid-19 was inoculated intensively, so as to reduce terminal sales promotion. The management fee is 253 million yuan (+ 50.33%), the management rate is 6.93% (-0.52pp), and the expense rate remains stable. Financial rate -1.62% (-0.67pp). In addition, the R & D cost is 354 million yuan (+ 32.65%), the R & D rate is 9.70% (- 2.11pp), and the R & D project is advancing steadily. In 2021, the receivables totaled 1.858 billion yuan, accounting for 50.88% (-20.47pp) of the revenue. Compared with conventional vaccines, covid-19 vaccine received faster payment. The balance of inventory was 1.058 billion yuan, accounting for 7.48% of assets (+ 2.92pp). The company increased the reserves of covid-19 vaccine raw materials and finished products.
The product pipeline enters the harvest period, and multiple heavy varieties are arranged. Pcv13: the company’s pcv13 was approved for listing in September, and 11 batches have been approved and issued as of 22q1. We expect that the market scale of China’s pcv13 is expected to reach 10.6 billion yuan in 2026, and the company’s sales are expected to reach 3.2 billion yuan in 2026. Hdcv: according to the crazy Miao gold standard, we expect the market scale of hdcv to reach 5.9 billion in 2026. The company has reported its production and is expected to be approved for listing in 22 years, with sales of 1.8 billion in 2026. In addition, MCV4, mpsv4, EV71, IPV, freeze-dried chickenpox and other phase II / III varieties are worth looking forward to. At the same time, the company has also arranged many cutting-edge heavy varieties, such as DTaP IPV Hib five linked vaccine, DTaP IPV four linked vaccine, mumps fengshuipox four linked vaccine, pentavalent oral rotavirus live vaccine, tetravalent hand, foot and mouth disease, tetravalent influenza, pcv20 and so on. At the same time, the company actively deployed new technology platforms such as adenovirus vector and mRNA to further enrich the product pipeline.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 5.617 billion yuan, 7.319 billion yuan and 9.708 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 53.81%, 30.30% and 32.64%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.774 billion yuan, 2.435 billion yuan and 3.394 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 40.44%, 37.24% and 39.37%. The revenue of conventional vaccines from 2022 to 2024 was 4.392 billion yuan, 6.094 billion yuan and 8.483 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 101.55%, 38.75% and 39.21%; The net profit was 1.318 billion yuan, 2.133 billion yuan and 2.969 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 141.86%, 61.87% and 39.21%, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the R & D progress is lower than the expected risk, the sales of vaccine products do not meet the expected risk, and the risk of negative events in the vaccine industry; Covid-19 virus mutation leads to the risk of vaccine failure; The public materials used in the research report may have the risk of information lag or untimely update.
