\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Conclusions and recommendations:
Performance summary:
It was announced that in 2021, the revenue was about 20 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42.8%, the net profit was 5.31 billion, a year-on-year increase of 72.6%, and the net profit margin increased by 4.6 percentage points to 26.6%. 4q achieved a revenue of 2.71 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 24.8%, and recorded a net profit of 430 million, a year-on-year decrease of 25%.
It was announced that in 2022q1, the revenue was 10.53 billion, a year-on-year increase of 43.6%, and the net profit was 3.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of 70%. Dividend scheme: cash dividend of 18 yuan per 10 shares.
In the single quarter of 2021q4, the revenue and profit showed negative growth, which was mainly affected by the active control of goods, the adjustment of rhythm and the sorting of prices. In terms of 21q4 and 22q1, the company’s revenue and profit increased by 21% and 34% year-on-year respectively, still performing well. For the whole year of 2021, under the product strategy of “grasping blue and white, strengthening waist and stabilizing glass Fen”, the company continued to promote high-end and circle expansion, and the revenue of Fen Liquor reached 17.92 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 41.9%. Under the guidance of blue and white 30 revival version, the volume and price of Fen Liquor series increased simultaneously, and the sales volume and ton price increased by 28.5% and 10.4% respectively; Focusing on the “healthy national liquor”, Zhuyeqing has built a three series product structure of green enjoyment, glory and tradition. The brand popularity has continued to improve, and the revenue of prepared liquor has reached 1.25 billion, an increase of 91.4% year-on-year; On the series of wines, the company consolidated the market foundation and realized an income of 640 million, with a year-on-year increase of 12.7%.
Geographically, in 2021, the revenue in the province reached 8.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34.6%, the revenue outside the province reached 11.74 billion, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%, and the proportion outside the province reached 59.26%. The company deepened the market layout of Fen Liquor “1357 + 10”, accelerated the expansion of the southern market, and the average growth rate of sales in the southern market reached more than 60% during the reporting period. In addition, the company also paid attention to the development of e-commerce platform, realizing an income of 950 million, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%.
In terms of expenses, with the continuous promotion of nationalization, the rapid expansion of income and the gradual emergence of economies of scale, the expense rate decreased by 2.08 percentage points year-on-year to 21.61% in 2021.
At the beginning of 2022, the company adjusted its marketing policies flexibly and took multiple measures at the same time. The revenue of Fen Liquor Products was 9.87 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 44.4%. The revenue of series liquor and prepared liquor was 260 million and 350 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 118% and 7.2% respectively. In terms of products, blue and white and other medium and high-end products have achieved significant growth. It is expected that the proportion of blue and white series in the first quarter will be close to 50%. This year, Bofen will strictly implement the contract system, and there is expected to be no significant growth in volume. The increase in the proportion of blue and white will continue to increase the ton price of products, which is reflected in the gross profit margin, which increased by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year in the first quarter to 74.8%. The continuous promotion of national layout has driven the continuous high growth of income outside the province. In the first quarter, the income inside and outside the province reached 3.85 billion and 6.63 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 31.3% and 52.5% respectively.
In terms of expenses, the expense rate during 22q1 decreased by 7.35 percentage points to 13.71% year-on-year, and the main benefit was that the sales expense rate decreased by 6.8 percentage points to 11.15% year-on-year.
At the end of the first quarter, the company’s contract debt balance was 3.88 billion yuan, an increase of 32.4% year-on-year. Despite the short-term impact of the epidemic and the weakening of consumption in the second quarter, we maintain confidence in the company’s annual performance. Relying on the “1357 + 10” market layout, the expansion of the southern market will continue to deepen. In terms of products, qinghuafen liquor will continue to release the benchmarking effect, and the shaping of waist products will also be strengthened. After the brand values and positioning of “Xinghua village” and “Zhuyeqing” are clear, Will provide incremental revenue for the company.
It is estimated that from 2022 to 2023, the net profit will be 7.88 billion and 10.38 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 48.4% and 31.7% respectively. The EPS will be 6.45 yuan and 8.51 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE is 42 times and 32 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” investment proposal.
Risk tip: the expansion outside the province is less than expected, the industry competition is intensified, the cost is higher than expected, and the impact of the epidemic is higher than expected
