\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 13 Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) )
Key investment points:
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report, with annual revenue of 15.356 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.64%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.114 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.66%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 2.060 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 11.57%. In addition, the company achieved a revenue of 3.124 billion yuan in 2022q1, a year-on-year decrease of 22.08%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 507 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.39%.
In 2021, the performance was high before and low after, and the core Internet video business continued to grow. In 2021q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 773 million yuan, 678 million yuan, 529 million yuan and 134 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 61.18%, 8.7%, 3.99% and - 63.79% respectively, mainly due to the overweight of supervision in the cultural and entertainment field in the second half of last year, superimposed on the structural adjustment of subsidiaries and the increase of Xiaomang investment in the strategic cultivation period. However, the company's core Internet video business still increased by 24.29% to 11.261 billion yuan in the whole year with strong content production and investment attraction ability. Among them, advertising revenue increased by 31.75% to 5.453 billion yuan, member revenue increased by 13.30% to 3.688 billion yuan, and operator revenue increased by 27.17% to 2.120 billion yuan. 118 new advertisers were added throughout the year, and "sister 2" was the most attracting business; By the end of 2021, the membership was 50.4 million, with a year-on-year increase of 39.5%.
The epidemic has put pressure on short-term performance, and pay attention to the performance inflection point opportunities brought by the optimization of follow-up content scheduling. In the short term, repeated outbreaks in China and delays in the production and broadcasting of the company's content led to a year-on-year decline of 34.39% to 507 million yuan in 2022q1, but an increase of 5.85% compared with 2020q1. Key variety shows such as "sound never stops" (April 24), "yearning for life 6" (April 29) and "sister 3" will be launched in Q2. There will still be heavy variety IP such as "brother 2", "secret escape 4" and "goodbye lover 2" in the follow-up; In terms of drama series, Shangshi and Jiangzhao dawn, which were launched in 2022q1, have achieved good reputation. The subsequent reserves include monsoon theater's wife's choice and Zhang Weiguo's summer, as well as potential blockbuster dramas such as juvenile chronicle of the great Song Dynasty 2, juvenile school 2 and the long river in the world (key ancient costume dramas). The subsequent content broadcasting has been significantly strengthened, which is expected to continue to drive the growth of the company's advertising and member income.
New business continues to expand, and it is expected to open up more realization scenarios in the medium and long term. 1) In terms of content e-commerce, Xiaomang is still in the period of strategic cultivation in 2021, with a daily activity peak of 1.26 million last year. This year, the assessment focus will pay more attention to the platform Gmv, and subsequent external strategic investors are expected to land. 2) It is expected that the company will slow down in the planning and real-time development of the entertainment industry, but it is expected to establish its own advantages in the planning and real-time development of the entertainment industry. 3) Yuancosmos business layout, continued to focus on AR, VR, XR and other cutting-edge technologies, and successively launched a series of innovative achievements such as virtual host and interactive video platform; 5g laboratory, which cooperates with Hunan Radio and television, continues to focus on the application of new technologies and promote content innovation.
Investment suggestion and profit forecast: the company has excellent content production ability, complete industrial production system and mature content marketing platform. It is estimated that the company's revenue in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 will be 18.427 billion yuan / 21.191 billion yuan / 23.734 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.497 billion yuan / 2.927 billion yuan / 3.305 billion yuan, the EPS will be 1.34 yuan / 1.57 yuan / 1.77 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 21.22 times / 18.11 times / 16.04 times. Taking 2022 as the benchmark, the company will be given 25-30 times PE, corresponding to a reasonable price range of 33.50-40.20 yuan. Maintain the company's "buy" rating.
Risk tips: changes in policy and supervision; Film and television content review risk; Membership and advertising revenue fell short of expectations.
