\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 120 Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) )
Key investment points
Core view: under the condition of weak competition in the industry, Yunda's performance for two consecutive quarters shows profit elasticity. It is expected that it will continue to enjoy industry dividends and release profit elasticity in 22 years.
Raise the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating. In 2021, the industry price war slowed down, and the industry price remained high in the first quarter of 2022. Considering the strong regulatory situation in the industry, the probability continues, the competitive strategy of major enterprises has not changed, and Yunda's single ticket net profit is still low before the third quarter of 2021, with large annual profit elasticity. We raised the forecast of Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) 20222024 net profit attributable to the parent company to RMB 2.5/31/37 billion (previously predicted to be RMB 1.5/16 billion in 2022 / 2023), and the corresponding EPS was RMB 0.87/1.07/1.27 (previously predicted to be RMB 51 / 56 million in 2022 / 2023), maintaining the "buy" rating.
Release the profit elasticity and the inflection point will come as scheduled. 21. In the whole year, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.477 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 1.402 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%. In the fourth quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit was 696 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 96%. In the first quarter of 2022, Yunda's net profit attributable to the parent was 347 million yuan, deducting 400 million yuan of net profit not attributable to the parent, with a year-on-year increase of 122%. In 2021, the administrative intervention superimposed on the price rise of enterprises in the peak season, and the company showed significant profit elasticity in Q4 of 21 and Q1 of 22. In terms of single ticket net profit, Yunda's single ticket net profit in the first quarter was 0.09 yuan, an increase of 0.04 yuan year-on-year and a decrease of 0.04 yuan month on month compared with the fourth quarter. We believe that it is mainly affected by the small number of Spring Festival cases, the weakening of scale effect, the rise of oil price and the epidemic in March.
The unit price remains strong and the cost continues to improve. In 2021, Yunda completed 18.4 billion pieces of business, with a year-on-year increase of 30% and a stable market share of 17%, ranking second in the industry. In 2021, Yunda's single ticket revenue was 2.14 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4%; The cost of single ticket transportation was 0.51 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, and the cost of single ticket operation center was 0.31 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the company's single ticket revenue was 2.53 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.04 yuan and a month on month increase of 0.22 yuan. In the first quarter of 2022, the company's single ticket revenue was 2.53 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.33 yuan and a month on month increase of 0.23 yuan. This is mainly because the price of the express industry remained strong in the first quarter of 2022, and the price rise in November 2021 continued in the first quarter.
The repair market continues to deduce, and the company may continue to benefit. In 2021, administrative intervention will ease the competitive pressure, and the express industry will meet the periodic repair market. In 2022, the regulatory situation of the industry will probably continue, and the competitive strategy of major enterprises has not changed. We expect that the impact of the epidemic and rising oil prices on the cost side is expected to be transmitted to the price side, and the current round of market interpretation or more than expected. Yunda's single ticket net profit is low before the third quarter of 2021, and its profit elasticity is large in 2022.
Risk warning events: the implementation of relevant policies is still uncertain, and the price war may still intensify; Risk of the impact of the epidemic on business; Risk of oil price fluctuation; If the long-term cost curve of the industry is flat, it will not be conducive to the differentiation between enterprises.
