\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 493 Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) )
Event 1: the company released its annual report for 2021. During the reporting period, the company achieved a revenue of 177024 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 65.03%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 12.824 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 75.46%, with a weighted average roe29.5% 95%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.61 percentage points; Among them, the fourth single quarter achieved a revenue of 47.667 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 60.77%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.702 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 63.09%. The company plans to pay dividends (including tax) of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares, and the annual performance of the company meets the expectations. Event 2: the company released the first quarter report of 2022. During the reporting period, the company achieved a revenue of 68.601 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 98.38%, a month on month increase of + 43.92%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.116 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18.85%, a month on month increase of + 15.32%. The performance of the first quarter was in line with expectations.
Single quarter revenue hit a record high, and the company’s performance in the first quarter was in line with expectations. The gross profit margin of 2022q1 sales of the company was 19.27%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.07 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 8.43%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.32 percentage points, mainly due to the rise of crude oil price and the reduction of price difference of main downstream products; The tax payable was 10.819 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 42.06%, mainly due to the increase of tax payable by the subsidiary Zhejiang Petrochemical at the end of the period; The net operating cash flow was 18.598 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 257.61%, mainly due to the increase in the net cash inflow from the purchase and sales business of the subsidiary Zhejiang Petrochemical in the current period; The construction in progress was 83.856 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 5.53%. The average price of 2022q1wti crude oil was US $95.13/barrel, an increase of 23.39% over the average price of 2021q4 of US $77.10/barrel. Under the rising cost, the company’s profit increased slightly relative to the revenue side, and the overall performance in the first quarter was in line with expectations.
The second phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical was fully put into operation, the technical transformation of CICC was completed, the benefits were significantly improved, and the profit of PTA / polyester business was under pressure. On January 13, 2022, the company announced that the 40 million T / a refining and chemical integration project (phase II) was fully put into operation. After the second phase of the project was put into operation, Zhejiang Petrochemical added 20 million T / a refining capacity, 6.6 million T / a aromatics and 1.4 million T / a ethylene production capacity, and the yield, richness and added value of chemicals were further improved. In 2021, Zhejiang Petrochemical achieved an operating revenue of 117545 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 81.1%, and a net profit of 22.296 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 98.5%. In 2021, Sinopec completed the technical transformation and upgrading through major overhaul, improved the product yield, significantly improved the benefit level, and made a net profit of 1.244 billion yuan in 2021. Affected by the epidemic and downstream demand, the inventory of polyester filament industry is at a high level in recent two years, and the market as a whole is in a state of loss. In the future, the epidemic will ease, the terminal demand will recover, and the profit of polyester industry is expected to be repaired.
Relying on the refining and chemical platform, increase R & D investment, continuously develop the downstream industrial chain in depth, and build a high-end new material industrial cluster. The company’s R & D expenses in 2022q1 were 863 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 118.17%, and the R & D expenses of its subsidiary Zhejiang Petrochemical increased significantly. Relying on the 40 million ton refining and chemical integration project of Zhejiang Petrochemical, the company has accelerated the layout of downstream new chemical materials, aimed at the field of new energy and high-end materials, deployed a number of new energy and new material products such as EVA, DMC, PC and ABS, and continuously enriched the product chain. The group and Zhoushan Municipal government plan to invest a total of 50 billion to jointly build Jintang Island high-performance new material Park, layout the field of high-end new materials, and is expected to build seven chemical industry chain projects and supporting projects, with a total product volume of 4.5 million tons, so as to further extend the refining and chemical industry chain and improve the added value and profitability of products.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 15.447 billion yuan, 18.117 billion yuan and 20.167 billion yuan respectively, EPS to be 1.53, 1.79 and 1.99 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 8.7, 7.4 and 6.6 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the international oil price has risen sharply, the macro-economy has declined, and the construction progress of new material projects is less than expected.
