\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 556 Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) )
Performance overview: in 2021, the company’s revenue was 1.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 110.0%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 170 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 193.4%. In 2022q1, the company’s revenue was 560 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 103.1%, a month on month increase of – 6.4%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 96.83 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 173.3%, a month on month increase of + 58.3%. 22q1 performance greatly exceeded expectations.
The high growth of multi line business contributed to the high growth of revenue and performance in 2021. In terms of business, the revenue of photovoltaic cutting equipment in 21 years was 980 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 117.0%, accounting for 62.6% of the revenue and 31.1% of the gross profit margin; The revenue of photovoltaic diamond line was 290 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 37.5%, accounting for 18.6% of the revenue and 35.9% of the gross profit margin; The revenue from silicon wafer and cutting OEM services of new business is 110 million yuan, accounting for 6.8% of the revenue and 28.7% of the gross profit margin; The revenue from innovative business was 110 million yuan (47.62 million equipment and 57.63 million consumables), a year-on-year increase of + 323.1%, accounting for 6.7% of the revenue and 42.4% of the gross profit margin; The revenue of tire testing equipment and consumables was 46.54 million, a year-on-year increase of + 12.2%, accounting for 3.0% of the revenue and 46.0% of the gross profit margin.
Cutting equipment: benefiting from the promotion of large-size and flake demand, the company has abundant orders for new gc700x slicers. By the end of 21, 943 units have been sold and 634 units have been delivered. Customers are all over large photovoltaic enterprises such as Jingao, Jingke, Gaojing, Tonghe and Anhui Huasheng. At the end of 21, the orders on hand reached 847 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 132%.
Photovoltaic diamond line: 40 μ M and 38 μ King Kong line, batch sales line 36 m μ M line type is gradually popularized and actively reserved 35 μ The R & D and testing of lines of M and below benefited from the technical transformation of “one machine and 12 lines”. The company’s diamond line has a production capacity of more than 25 million kilometers, an annual output of about 10 million kilometers in 21 years, an increase of 115% year-on-year, and a sales volume of more than 8 million kilometers, an increase of 81% year-on-year.
Chip OEM: cooperation has been established with Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Meike Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) , sunshine energy, runyangyangfu and other photovoltaic enterprises. In addition to the initial production of 5GW, it has also started the construction of 20GW in Leshan (6Gw in phase I) and 10GW in phase I of Jianhu. At the same time, the construction plan of 10GW in phase II of Jianhu has been increased to 12gw, with a total OEM capacity of 47gw. It is expected to land 21gw by the end of 22.
Innovative business (semiconductor, sapphire, magnetic materials): we have established cooperative relations with Lens Technology Co.Ltd(300433) , zhaochi semiconductor, jinruihong, mesk, Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(300224) , Ningbo koninda, etc. silicon carbide equipment and diamond wire have been put on trial at the client. At the end of the year, the equipment order was 43.14 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 285%.
The performance of 22q1 exceeded expectations, mainly due to the higher than expected net interest rate of diamond wire + profit of silicon wafer cutting OEM business. In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 33.8%, year-on-year -1.6pp, net profit margin was 11.0%, year-on-year + 3.1pp, and the total expense rate during the period was 20.3%, year-on-year -7.6pp; 22q1 company’s gross profit margin was 37.7%, year-on-year + 4.4pp, net profit margin was 17.4%, year-on-year + 4.5pp, and period expense rate was 16.9%, year-on-year -4.6pp. Good cost control ability. From the performance of subsidiaries (Unaudited), the company’s Q1 performance exceeded expectations mainly due to 1) diamond line; 2) Profit release of silicon wafer cutting OEM exceeded expectations:
The net profit rate of 22q1 diamond line exceeded the expectation: the total revenue of 22q1 of Changzhi high test and Huguan high test (mainly responsible for photovoltaic diamond line) was 210 million yuan, and the net profit was 56.65 million yuan (considering some related party transactions, the consolidated profit was slightly less). The net profit rates of the two subsidiaries exceeded 22%, which greatly exceeded the market expectation (the net profit rates of the two subsidiaries were lower than 10% in 21 years). The main reason was that the silicon wafer operating rate was full in the first quarter, the demand for diamond line was strong, and the selling price was stable, In addition, gaotest took the lead in completing the technical transformation of “one machine and 12 lines” in the industry, increasing the production capacity by more than three times, diluting the fixed cost, and realizing the double improvement of shipment and profit margin.
The profit release of 22q1 cutting OEM exceeded expectations: 22q1 Leshan gaotest (responsible for silicon wafer cutting OEM) achieved a revenue of 140 million yuan, a net profit of 22.33 million yuan and a net interest rate of 16.2%. Considering that Leshan gaotest has the influence of Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) phase I 6Gw capacity climbing, the actual OEM profit of Q1 is expected to be higher than 22.33 million yuan, higher than the market expectation, mainly due to the high silicon wafer price in the first quarter + the company’s leading cutting and large-size cutting technology.
22q1 equipment orders in hand are expected to continue to grow: excluding the revenue performance of OEM and diamond wire subsidiaries, the equipment related revenue is about 210 million yuan and the profit is about 21.4 million yuan (in fact, due to certain related transactions between subsidiaries and parent companies, such as self-use equipment for silicon wafer cutting OEM services and diamond wire, the actual profit is different from the calculation). The company has announced a total of 363 million yuan of equipment orders in the first quarter. Superimposed on other undisclosed orders, we expect the company’s orders on hand to continue to grow compared with the end of the 21st century.
The foundry capacity of silicon wafer cutting has been increased to 47gw, and the cutting of IBC, TOPCON and hjt sheets has been continued. The company’s OEM business customers cover Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Meike Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) , sunshine energy, runyangfu, etc. in 22 years, the company is expected to form a capacity of 21gw and a shipment of 10-12gw. At the same time, the company will increase the construction plan of 10GW in Jianhu phase II to 12gw, with a total OEM capacity of 47gw. Silicon cost accounts for the highest proportion of battery kwh cost. According to solarzoom data, the cost of silicon wafer accounts for 53% of the production cost of hjt battery. Half rod sheet is an important step to reduce the cost of hjt silicon wafer and improve the production yield. In 2021, the company launched the first heterojunction 120 in the industry μ M thick silicon wafer, realizing heterojunction n-type Large Size 120 for the first time μ M silicon wafer half cut, and signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Jiangsu Akcome Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002610) to continuously promote the thickness of silicon wafer from 150 μ M to 120 μ m、90 μ M. during the reporting period, the company also delivered relevant equipment to Huasheng to further strengthen the layout of hjt. The company’s sheet technology is expected to be applied to TOPCON, IBC and other process routes. At the same time, the company has recently launched 210 rectangular silicon wafer cutting equipment. We expect that this equipment will have the possibility of cooperation with Trina Solar, Longji and other enterprises with layout related technologies in the future. With the continuous progress of high-tech sheet cutting and rectangular silicon wafer cutting processes, the enterprises that currently layout the production capacity of hjt, TOPCON and IBC processes are expected to continue to cooperate with high-tech and promote the continuous improvement of the company’s cutting equipment and OEM service orders.
Profit forecast: benefiting from the company’s diamond wire and silicon wafer cutting OEM profits exceeding expectations and abundant orders for equipment in hand, the profit forecast for the company was raised. It is estimated that from 2022 to 2024, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 4.7 (up 15%) / 7.2 (up 9%) / 930 million yuan, corresponding to pe21 / 14 / 11 times, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the expansion of silicon wafer production is less than expected, the profit fluctuation risk of the company’s OEM business, and the market competition intensifies.
