\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 882 Guangzhou Kingmed Diagnostics Group Co.Ltd(603882) )
Key investment points:
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022.
Routine test recovery + covid-19 test increase, driving the high growth of performance in 2021. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 11.943 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 44.88%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 47.03%; Deduction of net profit not attributable to the parent company was RMB 2.189 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 50.18%. Looking at 2021q4 alone, the company achieved an operating revenue of 3.326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 37.64% and a month on month increase of + 5.19%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 547 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.37% and a month on month increase of – 10.70%. The year-on-year growth of the company’s performance in 2021 is mainly due to the continuous recovery of routine testing business and the increase of covid-19 testing business. The profit growth rate of 2021q4 is lower than that of revenue, which is mainly affected by the decline of nucleic acid detection price.
The quality of income has been continuously improved and the profitability has been enhanced day by day. In 2021, the revenue of the company’s solid tumor diagnosis, neuro clinical immune diagnosis, infectious diseases diagnosis (excluding covid-19) and blood disease diagnosis businesses were +45.87%, +38.21%, +34.81% and +31.90% year-on-year respectively, driving the revenue share of special examination business (excluding covid-19) to increase by 1.68pct to 50.45% year-on-year. In terms of customer structure, the company’s revenue from tertiary hospitals (excluding covid-19) increased by + 33.27% year-on-year, and the proportion of revenue increased by 2.26pct to 35.86% year-on-year. Affected by the increase in the proportion of special inspection revenue and the optimization of customer structure, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin increased by 0.60pct to 47.26% year-on-year.
The demand for nucleic acid detection increased + the cost rate decreased during the period, and the performance of 2022q1 exceeded expectations. In 2022q1, the company achieved an operating revenue of 4.251 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 58.70%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 850 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 58.00%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 837 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 57.84%. The company’s performance growth in 2022q1 exceeded expectations, mainly because: (1) covid-19 epidemic occurred in many places across the country, and the demand for nucleic acid detection increased; (2) Affected by the scale effect, the company’s sales expense rate and management expense rate decreased by 1.40pct and 1.20pct year-on-year. Looking forward to 2022, affected by the further decline of nucleic acid detection price, it is expected that the profit contributed by nucleic acid detection business will be reduced. With the gradual improvement of covid-19 epidemic prevention and control measures, the covid-19 epidemic in China will be effectively controlled, and the profit contributed by the company’s routine testing business will increase steadily.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: from 2022 to 2024, the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.240/19.95/2.264 billion yuan, EPS of 4.81/4.28/4.86 yuan respectively, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price is 15.78/17.71/15.61 times respectively. Considering: (1) the compound growth rate of revenue and net profit in 20052019 before the covid-19 epidemic of American holding laboratory, a foreign comparable company, was 8.15% and 4.45% respectively, and the average PE was 18.06 times; (2) Affected by the reduction of covid-19 testing profit contribution, the company’s performance is expected to be under pressure from 2022 to 2023. However, with the effective control of covid-19 epidemic in China, the company’s routine testing business is expected to increase by 15% – 20%, becoming the main source of the company’s performance; Give the company 20-24 times PE in 2022, and the corresponding target price is 96.20-1 15.44 yuan / share, maintaining the company’s “buy” rating.
Risk tips: industry policy change risk, inspection sample control risk, medical inspection and pathological diagnosis service practice risk, covid-19 epidemic risk, etc.
