\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 600)
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 9.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.20%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 1.02 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 17.14%.
Key investment points
The sales volume of main brands increased steadily, and the product structure continued to be optimized. In 2022q1, the company achieved 2.219 million kiloliters of beer sales, with a year-on-year increase of – 2.79%, mainly due to the certain impact of the epidemic on the company’s sales after March. By brand, the sales volume of Qingdao’s main brands reached 1.304 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of + 5.1%, accounting for + 4.6 PCT, reaching 61.25%, and the high-end development was progressing smoothly; Other brands were affected by the epidemic, with year-on-year sales of -13.09%. From the perspective of ton price, benefiting from the improvement of product structure and price increase, the average ton price of beer of the company was + 6.10% year-on-year, about 4325 yuan / ton.
The price increase hedged the cost pressure, and the net interest rate increased year-on-year. According to the new accounting standards (transportation expenses are transferred from sales expenses to operating costs), the gross profit margin of 22q1 company is 37.85%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.47pct. The rise in the prices of barley, aluminum cans and other materials at the beginning of this year has a certain impact on the gross profit margin of the company. However, with the transmission of price increase and the continuous improvement of product structure, we expect the gross profit margin of the company to be relatively stable as a whole. The net interest rate of 22q1 company was 12.52%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.70pct, of which the management expense rate / sales expense rate was + 0.06pct / – 1.25pct respectively year-on-year. After the Winter Olympic Games, the company’s publicity investment decreased, and the net interest rate increased accordingly.
The base market is greatly affected by the epidemic, and it is expected that the sales volume will rebound in the peak season. Since March 2022, the epidemic situation has been on the rise all over the country. Among them, Shanghai and Shandong, as Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) strong provinces and cities, have been seriously affected, and the sales volume of the company has been under pressure under the sealing policy. However, the epidemic situation in the whole country has improved to a certain extent in late April. If the epidemic situation can be effectively controlled before the traditional peak season, coupled with the price increase of products and the improvement of overall structure under the high-end, the steady growth of the company’s revenue is worth looking forward to.
Investment suggestion: the company’s product structure has been steadily improved and the ton price has maintained a good growth. We are optimistic about the company’s long-term development in the high-end process of the beer industry. We maintain the previous profit forecast: the company’s operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 32.8353531837.792 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% / 7.6% / 7.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 3.3423998/4.605 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% / 19.6% / 15.2%. The corresponding EPS is 2.45/2.93/3.38 yuan respectively. Considering that the company is a leader in China’s beer industry, the company was given a 22-year pe35x valuation and maintained the company’s “Buy-A” rating.
Risk tips: the epidemic situation in some areas is repeated, the product upgrading is less than expected, the price rise of raw materials is higher than expected, and the industry competition is intensified.
