\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 557 Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) )
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 1.432 billion yuan, yoy + 3.86%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 208 million yuan, yoy + 5.15%; Deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 182 million yuan, yoy + 2.64%, which was in line with our expectations.
22q1 grew steadily under the high base, and Q2 is expected to continue to improve. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 1.432 billion yuan, an increase of 3.86% at the same time. Considering the high base in the same period caused by the dislocation of the Spring Festival, the revenue side of the company still maintained positive growth. We expect that the main reasons are: (1) the transmission of price increase last year was relatively smooth; (2) Channel intensive cultivation and channel sinking are continuously promoted; (3) In March, the epidemic spread across the country, stimulating the scene of home consumption, and then driving the national mobile sales of sunflower. In the first quarter of 2022, the company realized a net cash flow from operating activities of - 78 million yuan, a decrease of 128.49% at the same time. It is expected that it is mainly due to the impact of the late pace of purchasing some raw materials. Considering the low base number and epidemic catalysis in the same period, we expect Q2 to continue to improve. On the one hand, the epidemic has stimulated the dynamic sales of sunflower seeds. The channel inventory is expected to be relatively low at the end of March, and sunflower seeds are expected to be further accelerated in April; On the other hand, nuts have a low base in the same period, and the growth rate is expected to be still faster than sunflower seeds.
The resilience of gross profit margin is prominent, and the expense rate remains stable. The gross profit margin of 22q1 was 30.86%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.18pct and a month-on-month increase of -2.57pct. It is expected that (1) although the price of sunflower seed products has increased, the purchase price of raw materials has also increased slightly; (2) The cost of packaging materials and auxiliary materials increased. The sales expense rate of 22q1 company was 9.23%, year-on-year -0.14pct, and the management expense rate was 4.43%, year-on-year + 0.01%. The overall expense rate remained stable and the expense control was good. Overall, the net interest rate of 22q1 company was 14.51%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.18pct.
Products and channels continue to fission and have support for long-term development. Products: create the first high-end brand of "Kui Zhen", and launch new flavors such as rattan pepper melon seeds, sea melon seeds and orange peel melon seeds in blue bag. Nuts take daily nuts as the strategic focus, create a nut gift product matrix, and incubate new high-end nuts and flavor nuts. Channel: continue to promote channel intensive cultivation. The company built channel intensive cultivation information system in 2021. At present, nearly 120000 terminals are online, of which about 70000 to 80000 are new terminals. Continue to build millions of terminals. At present, the company has more than 400000 retail terminals in China, and plans to cover 1 million terminals in the next 3-5 years. The new terminals are mainly vulnerable markets, county and township markets and special channels.
Investment advice: maintain the "buy" rating. Considering that the cost of raw materials is still high, we expect the company's revenue in 22-24 years to be RMB 7.071/81.76/9.324 billion respectively, net profit to be RMB 1.100/13.54/1.548 billion respectively (RMB 1.146/13.48/1.541 billion in the previous time), and EPS to be RMB 2.17/2.67/3.05 respectively (RMB 2.26/2.66/3.04 in the previous time), maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: new product sales are less than expected, channel expansion is less than expected, and food safety events.
