\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 088 China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) )
1. Black gold aircraft carrier, dark blue goes further: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) 2022 Q1 performance improved significantly
According to the company's disclosure, in the first quarter of 2022, the company's operating revenue was 83.902 billion yuan, an increase of 24.1% over the same period of last year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to be 18.957 billion yuan, an increase of 63.3% over the same period last year. The main reason is that the average sales price of coal has risen and the profit of coal segment has increased significantly; The electricity sales and average electricity sales price increased, and the profit of the power generation segment increased.
2. Coal business: in 2022, the cost reduction and efficiency increase, and the gross profit increased significantly
Judging from the future market, we believe that during the whole 14th Five Year Plan period, the tight balance between supply and demand in the coal market is difficult to effectively alleviate, and the coal price may continue to rise. According to the production and sales data of commercial coal in 2022 predicted by Shenhua annual report in 2021, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) 2022 will significantly reduce the quantity of purchased coal, and the first quarter report has been basically fulfilled. Moreover, we speculate that it may be difficult to increase the quantity of purchased coal from the later stage to 2025.
According to the business objectives disclosed by the company, we speculate that Shenhua's goal is to reduce the outsourcing by about 65 million tons in 2022. Therefore, we predict that the outsourcing volume may drop to 110 million tons from 2022 to 2024, so as to improve the comprehensive gross profit margin of the coal segment by reducing costs and increasing efficiency. According to the analysis of the business model, from 2022 to 2024, by reducing the purchased coal and reducing the business of the low interest rate sector, it is expected that the comprehensive gross profit margin of the coal business sector may be 35%, 35% and 34.8%, significantly higher than the gross profit margin of 27.6% in 2021.
3. Profit forecast and valuation
Maintain the company's net profit attributable to the parent company of 64.16 billion / 73.6 billion in 2022 / 2023. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: economic growth is less than expected; The recovery of housing construction was less than expected; The investment of construction capacity exceeded expectations
