\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 637 Zanyu Technology Group Co.Ltd(002637) )
Event:
On April 28, Zanyu Technology Group Co.Ltd(002637) released the first quarterly report of 2022: in the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of 2.899 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.54% and a month on month decrease of 8.88%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 165 million yuan, down 9.11% year-on-year and 14.14% month on month; The gross profit rate decreased by 13.5 percentage points year-on-year to reach 97.5 percentage points; The net interest rate reached 5.50%, down 2.04 percentage points year-on-year and up 0.11 percentage points month on month.
Key investment points:
Under the influence of DMO, Q1 performance is under pressure and is optimistic about the rapid growth of the company's performance
In Q1 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of 2.899 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.54% and a month on month decrease of 8.88%. The company's revenue increased positively year-on-year, mainly due to the rise of upstream raw material prices, which led to the increase of product prices. According to wind, the average price of Q1 hangyouhua 1845 stearic acid reached 1274333 yuan / ton in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of + 44.62% and a month on month increase of + 18.08%. The revenue fell month on month, mainly due to the implementation of DMO policy in Indonesia in the first quarter, which had a certain impact on the normal production and operation of dukuda base. With the cancellation of DMO policy and the continuous production of new projects such as Hangzhou Youhua and Henan Zanyu, we are optimistic about the rapid growth of the company's performance in the later stage.
In Q1 2022, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 165 million yuan, down 9.11% year-on-year and 14.14% month on month. The year-on-year decline in performance was mainly due to the significant year-on-year growth of upstream raw materials and the rise of the company's costs, which compressed the profits to a certain extent. The gross profit margin reached 13.31%, a year-on-year decline of 4.36 percentage points and a month on month increase of 5.97 percentage points. Compared with Q4 in 2021, the company's gross profit margin increased significantly, mainly due to the adjustment of accounting standards for financial statements in 2021 and the transfer of freight to operating costs. Therefore, the relevant offset was carried out in Q4 in 2021, resulting in a significant increase in operating costs and a large decline in gross profit margin in that quarter. From the perspective of net interest rate, the net interest rate of Q1 company in 2022 reached 5.50%, up 0.11 percentage points month on month, and the profitability was flat month on month.
In terms of period expense ratio, the company's sales / management / financial expense ratio in 2022 and Q1 was 2.57% / 1.85% / 0.53% respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of -0.89 / + 0.05 / - 0.14pct and a month on month ratio of + 8.51 / + 0.33 / + 0.16pct; Meanwhile, in 2022, the net cash flow generated from the operating activities of Q1 company reached 93 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 123.32%, mainly due to the growth of income in the current period and the year-on-year increase of cash receipts; At the same time, the settlement of purchase payment bills increased and cash payment decreased.
Indonesia suspended palm oil exports, promoting the continued boom in palm oil
Since 2022, in order to cope with the shortage of palm oil supply in Indonesia and China and prevent the price from rising further, the Indonesian government has issued a series of policies. On January 18, the Ministry of Commerce of Indonesia issued a bill to implement the export license system for the export of crude palm oil; On February 8, the Ministry of Commerce of Indonesia again issued a bill requiring all exporters of crude palm oil and its derivatives to comply with China market obligations (DMO) from February 15; On March 9, the Ministry of Commerce of Indonesia requested that the proportion of compulsory sales of palm oil in Indonesia and China be expanded from 20% to 30% of the company's planned export volume from March 10; On March 17, the Indonesian government cancelled the DMO policy and increased the palm oil export surcharge. According to China Economic Net, on April 22 local time, Indonesian President Joko announced that the export of palm oil and related raw materials would be suspended from April 28. At present, Indonesia is the world's leading producer and exporter of palm oil. 60% of the world's palm oil production comes from Indonesia. Indonesia's suspension of exports will lead to a sharp shortage of global palm oil supply in the short term, driving the rising prices of palm oil and its derivatives. In the long run, under the background of the steady growth of China's palm oil consumption in Indonesia and the B30 biodiesel policy, Indonesia's restrictive policies on palm oil export may continue, and palm oil is expected to maintain prosperity for a long time.
Indonesia intends to promote the downstream development of palm oil, and the advantages of zanyudukuda base are prominent
The Zanyu Technology Group Co.Ltd(002637) dukuda base will continue to benefit from Indonesia's suspension of palm oil exports and the rise in global palm oil prices. Located in Jakarta Free Trade Zone, Indonesia, dukuda base has obvious advantages in palm oil purchase price, convenience and production cost. At the same time, the Indonesian government has repeatedly expressed its willingness to promote the development of local palm oil downstream industries. On October 13, 2021, Indonesian President Joko said that Indonesia would stop the export of crude palm oil at some time in the future and process it into derivatives with added value; On October 19, 2021, zoko once again told the media that he planned to brake the export of raw materials because there was no added value and could not create jobs. While Zanyu Technology Group Co.Ltd(002637) dukuda base has 450000 T / a oil refining capacity in Indonesia, which mainly processes palm oil locally and produces various downstream oil products for sale, which is consistent with Indonesia's policy intention to promote the development of palm oil downstream industry. In the future, with the promotion of relevant local policies, the competitive advantage of dukuda base will further appear.
Hangzhou Petrochemical Company, continuous capacity expansion, phase II Acceptance
According to the wechat official account of Huajian management, on April 14, the completion acceptance of the overall project of Hangzhou Youhua phase II project with an annual output of 100000 tons of fatty acid and oleic acid passed smoothly. The project mainly includes 40000 t / a glyceryl monostearate, 10000 t / a glyceryl laurate, 20000 t / a OPO structural ester, 20000 t / a oleic acid and 10000 t / a synthetic ester. Among them, OPO structural ester is an infant nutritional supplement, which can be added to infant milk powder. The market price is about 50000 yuan / ton, with high added value. Meanwhile, the company's 250000 T / a oil chemical production capacity of Zhongyuan daily chemical ecological industrial park is also actively promoted. With the continuous optimization of product structure and continuous production capacity, the company's competitiveness and voice in the field of oil and chemical industry will continue to increase.
According to the profit forecast and investment rating, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022, 2023 and 2024 is expected to be 1.105, 1.392 and 1.663 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS is 2.13, 2.69 and 3.21 yuan / share, corresponding to 7, 5 and 4 times of PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the risk of palm oil price fluctuation; Risks of palm oil tariff policy changes; Macroeconomic fluctuation risk; Environmental risks; Safety production risk; Risk of exchange rate fluctuation; Risks of import and export trade.
