\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 688 Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) )
Key investment points
Industry boom / product structure optimization, performance exceeding expectations
The company announced that the operating revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non net profit in 22q1 was 260 / 87 / 91 million, yoy + 25.2% / + 106.1% / + 124.2%, and 21q4 were - 7.6% / - 17.3% / + 10.8% respectively. Under the influence of the epidemic, the company's performance still exceeded expectations. We judged that first, due to the boom of high-purity quartz sand industry, the company's average price increased, resulting in a significant increase in gross profit per ton / net profit per ton; Second, due to the high growth of semiconductor materials business, the high gross profit margin of semiconductor materials and the optimization of product structure, the performance is bright.
High purity quartz sand is expected to maintain a high boom, and the volume, price and profit are expected to rise together
We expect that the revenue of high-purity quartz sand of 22q1 company accounts for about 50% and the sales volume is about 4000 tons. Under the prosperity of the industry, the company has accelerated the project construction, and the 20000 ton high-purity sand project has been put into operation. We expect it to be fully produced in the middle of the 22nd year; The acquired Qiangbang shares are also expected to contribute to the increment; We expect that the 15000 ton high purity sand project is expected to be put into operation in 23h1. With the continuous release of new production capacity, the sales volume of high-purity quartz sand is expected to maintain a high increase. We estimate that the average price of 22q1 exceeds 30000 yuan / ton, which is still higher than that of 21q4. We judge that first, due to the continuous tight balance between supply and demand in the industry, some orders of the company are re signed, and the average price continues to increase; Second, the proportion of inner sand in the company has increased, and the average price of inner sand is higher. Under the supply pattern of "two overseas + one big China", the new growth of the industry is controllable, the supply and demand is expected to continue to be in tight balance, and the industry boom is expected to continue.
Semiconductor quartz materials are expected to continue in large quantities, and the product structure is expected to be optimized
The company actively promotes the certification of semiconductor equipment manufacturers outside China. At present, it has passed the certification in the field of Tel diffusion and etching and Lam etching. The certification of Applied Materials in the United States has made phased progress, and the certification of other semiconductor manufacturers in Japan and abroad is also in rapid progress. With the increasing number of certified enterprises, the company's semiconductor orders are expected to continue to increase. In order to meet the downstream demand, the company has accelerated the construction of production capacity. At present, the 1800 T / a quartz mound project has been completed and put into operation. We expect that the 6000 T / a electronic grade quartz product project is expected to reach production in October 2022. The company is one of the few raw material suppliers that have passed the Tel high temperature diffusion certification in the world. We judge that high temperature products account for more than 50% of the company's semiconductor quartz material product structure, and the proportion is expected to continue to increase.
Profitability has increased significantly, and the ability of expense control has been enhanced
22q1 company achieved a gross profit margin / net profit margin of 54.6% / 33.6%, respectively + 14.3 / + 13.2pct year-on-year and + 6.7 / - 4.0pct month on month. The expense rate of 22q1 company during the period was 12.6%, with a year-on-year rate of - 2.6pct, of which the sales / management expense rate was - 0.3 / - 3.4pct year-on-year, and the R & D / financial expense rate was + 0.3 / + 0.8pct year-on-year. The company continued to strengthen control, and the absolute amount of 22q1 management expenses was 19.1 million yuan, a year-on-year / month on month decrease.
Investment suggestion: we raised the forecast of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 / 23 / 24 to 622 / 937 / 1151 million (the original profit forecast was 569 / 906 / 1124 million), mainly considering the gradual increase of the proportion of inner sand in the company, and raised the assumption of average price of pure quartz sand. The adjusted earnings forecast corresponds to 32 / 21 / 17 times the current share price PE, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: the demand is less than expected; The launch of new production capacity is less than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
