\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
Event:
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) released the report for the first quarter of 2022: during the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 23.268 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 45.21% and a month on month increase of + 15.40%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 3.009 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 27.17% and a month on month increase of + 46.71%.
Key investment points:
GAC EA made great progress, and the sales volume of “Liangtian” increased steadily. In Q1 2022, the company sold 608200 vehicles in total, a year-on-year increase of + 22.48%; GAC ea’an’s sales volume increased significantly, with a cumulative sales volume of 44900 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 154.85%; The growth rate of joint venture brands was steady. Honda and Toyota sold 2124 / 247000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 16.75% / 23.44%; The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 52800, a year-on-year increase of + 144.80%. During the reporting period, the sales volume of independent brand cars increased significantly year-on-year, driving the high growth of the company’s operating revenue.
The effect of fee control is remarkable, and the net interest rate is higher month on month. During the reporting period, the company’s gross profit margin was 6.12%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.57pct and a month on month increase of -4.15pct. Affected by the rise of raw materials and the decline of subsidies, the gross profit margin was obviously under pressure; The net interest rate was 12.94%, with a year-on-year ratio of -1.85pct and a month on month ratio of + 2.43pct, mainly due to the obvious improvement in the expense side. The sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratio in the first quarter was 4.96% / 4.11% / 1.04% / 0.01%, with a month on month ratio of -0.85 / – 2.06 / – 0.10 / – 0.29pct. Under the steady growth of “two fields”, during the reporting period, the company’s associates and joint ventures realized an investment income of 4.142 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.31% and a month on month increase of + 21.72%, contributing to the main profit increment.
In 2021, the sales volume of independent new energy vehicles increased by 77.35% year-on-year. In 2021, the company sold 2141700 passenger cars, a year-on-year increase of + 4.97%; Among them, the annual sales volume of energy-saving vehicles (HEV) was 298800, a year-on-year increase of + 43.63%; The sales volume of new energy vehicles was 142900, a year-on-year increase of + 77.35%. Gac-e’an launched three new products, aiony, aionsplus and aionvplus, and further improved the product matrix in the core market of new energy vehicles with RMB 10 China Tianying Inc(000035) 000. The cumulative sales volume of e’an brand in the whole year was 120200, with a year-on-year increase of 101.80%. The sales volume of aions, aiony and aionv terminals are in the forefront of their pure electricity market segments, and it is expected to continue to maintain good growth in 2022.
In 2021, Guangfeng ASP increased by 11600 yuan. In 2021, GAC Honda sold more than 780000 vehicles and launched many models such as accord, style and Lingpai. The brand ASP reached 147100 yuan, roughly the same as that in 2020. GAC Toyota sold 828000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 8.23%, mainly due to the launch of high-priced models such as Camry, Highlander and Saina, and the brand ASP reached 156400 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11600 yuan; Among them, Saina, the first MPV model, entered the price range of 400000 yuan luxury brand; Camry sold more than 210000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 17.08%. The terminal sales volume ranked first in the medium and high-end car segment.
The expansion project of new energy vehicles is gradually implemented, and the production capacity will increase by 300000 in 2022. The second phase of the company’s independent brand new energy vehicle capacity expansion project (100000 vehicles / year) has been completed and put into operation in February 2022. In addition, the second phase of GAC Toyota New Energy Vehicle expansion project (200000 vehicles / year) and GAC Honda New Energy Vehicle expansion project (120000 vehicles / year) will be completed in 2022 and 2024 respectively, laying a solid capacity foundation for the rapid development of the company’s new energy vehicle business.
The profit forecast and investment rating company’s sales of new energy vehicles are growing rapidly, and the joint venture brand continues to make efforts. It is expected that the company will realize the main business revenue of 98.2, 110.2 and 119.9 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 30%, 12% and 9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.6 billion yuan, 11.2 billion yuan and 13.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 30%, 17% and 24%. The corresponding EPS was 0.92, 1.08 and 1.33 yuan respectively, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price was 12, 10 and 8 times respectively. The valuation was reasonable and the “buy” rating was maintained.
The risk suggests that the sales growth of independent new energy vehicles is less than expected; The growth of sales volume of joint venture brands was lower than expected; The price of upstream raw materials continues to rise; The impact of terminal price rise on sales exceeds expectations; The progress of capacity expansion was less than expected.
