\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 865 Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) )
Key investment points
Event: in the first quarter of 2022, the company realized an operating revenue of 3.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.61%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 437 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.88%.
Photovoltaic glass bottom profit, performance fell year-on-year. At the end of 021, the daily melting capacity of the company's photovoltaic glass kiln was 12200 tons, a significant increase from 5800 tons at the end of 2020. Meanwhile, in 22q1, driven by the demand for deferred projects in China and rush loading in the Indian market, the demand for photovoltaic increased strongly. The company's photovoltaic glass shipments also increased significantly, driving a high increase in revenue. However, the price and profit of 21q1 photovoltaic glass are at a historical high, and the current price has decreased significantly year-on-year. At the same time, in the first quarter, affected by the price rise of soda ash, natural gas and other raw materials, the profitability of glass was in the bottom range. The comprehensive gross profit margin of 22q1 company was only 21.47%, which decreased significantly compared with the profit peak of 21q1.
The inventory has been rationalized at the current level of Q1. By the end of the first quarter of 2022, the company's inventory was 1.363 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 67.07% compared with the end of 2021. The finished products of the company at the end of 2021 have been sold in the first quarter of 2022. At present, the inventory turnover rate of the company has been at a normal level. As of March 31, 2022, the company's photovoltaic glass orders on hand totaled about 120 million square meters, covering the existing production capacity for more than three months, and the orders on hand were abundant.
High quality production capacity continued to be released, and the scale advantage was further enhanced. In the first quarter of 2022, two photovoltaic glass kilns with a daily melting capacity of 1200 tons located in Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province successively entered the trial operation stage. At present, the total production capacity of the company has reached 14600 tons. The third and fourth phases of the company's Anhui production base are under construction, and it is planned to build four photovoltaic glass kilns with a daily melting capacity of 1200 tons in Nantong. It is expected that the daily melting capacity of the company will reach 20600 tons and 30200 tons by the end of 2022 and 2023 respectively.
Quartz sand is arranged upstream to lock in high-quality and low-cost raw materials. Recently, the company completed 100% equity of Dahua mining and 100% equity of Sanli mining. Dahua mining and Sanli mining have 500000 T / A and 1.9 million T / a respectively. The two companies are going through the formalities to expand the production scale to 2.6 million T / A and 4 million T / A. With the further investment of the company's production capacity and the layout of quartz sand resources in the upstream, it will help the company lock in the supply of raw materials and further expand its cost advantage.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.91 billion, 4.025 billion and 4.977 billion respectively. At present, the price of photovoltaic glass is in the bottom range. It is expected that this year's photovoltaic demand will be strong and the company's cost advantage will be obvious. If the subsequent price increases, it will bring greater performance flexibility. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the production expansion progress is lower than expected; The permeability of double glass components is lower than expected; The cost of raw materials has risen.
