\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 19 Tianjin Ringpu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(300119) )
Key investment points
Performance summary: in 2022, Q1 company achieved an operating revenue of 390 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.2%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 70 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.9%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 60 million yuan after deduction, a year-on-year decrease of 39%.
Comments: the year-on-year decline of the company's Q1 performance was mainly affected by the downstream breeding industry. In the first quarter, the pig price was still low, the breeding industry suffered losses and affected by the epidemic, the market demand weakened, and the breeding performance declined; On the other hand, Hubei Longxiang was still in the trial production stage during the reporting period, the production capacity was not released, and the income of API decreased. At present, pig breeding enterprises are still generally in a state of loss, but their profitability is gradually restored, the cost center of the industry is moving down, the demand for animal protection products may increase, and the replacement of biological strains in South China in terms of avian influenza vaccine is over, and the integrated operation of the company is progressing smoothly. On the whole, the prospect is good. At the same time, the company announced that it plans to grant 4.137 million restricted shares to 213 people in total. The performance assessment target for 20222024 is based on the net profit of 21 years, and the net profit growth rate is no less than 11% / 33% / 53%, which can fully mobilize the enthusiasm of employees and make long-term development better.
The company has strengthened the management of customer structure. With the increasing proportion of large-scale farmers, the attention of animal protection has been strengthened. The in-depth cooperation with group customers is conducive to risk control and long-term development. At present, the price of live pigs is about 14.5 yuan / kg, and farmers are still generally at a loss. Combined with the long-term environmental protection requirements and the blow of African swine fever, the proportion of large-scale farmers in China is increasing. The breeding group achieved cost reduction and efficiency increase and improved risk resistance through "breeding germplasm improvement + low protein diet technology exploration + epidemic prevention and control capability improvement + industrial chain connection". At the same time, we will enhance the traceability of animal protection products and strengthen the willingness to accelerate the in-depth integration with large animal protection enterprises with the ability of biosafety system construction and comprehensive epidemic prevention and control. The company has a complete product matrix and can build an epidemic prevention and control system for key customers. Differentiated services can effectively improve the stickiness of group customers. With regard to the cooperative mode of breeding, the company has continuously optimized the sales structure of its top five customers, accounting for 12.27 billion yuan, accounting for 58.2% of the total revenue of the company. In 2021, the overall revenue of livestock business was 420 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, the sales volume of inactivated vaccine for livestock was 42.76 million ml, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, the drug revenue was 270 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.5%, and the vaccine revenue was basically the same as 150 million yuan. In terms of API, affected by environmental protection requirements, Longxiang Pharmaceutical Workshop stopped production and moved to the new plant, and the new production capacity has not been released. Therefore, the revenue is 220 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32%. At present, the new plant has been put into operation, which can contribute 800-1 billion yuan to the output value of API. Multiple sectors will develop together, and the future performance will be better
The company has rich product categories, layout of chemical medicine sector and enhanced growth. The company's avian influenza (H5 + H7) trivalent inactivated vaccine ranks in the forefront of China's market share; The Inactivated Porcine ring type 2 vaccine and the live porcine infectious gastrodiarrhea vaccine have strong competitiveness in the market of pig biological products; In terms of veterinary chemicals, the immunity of livestock and poultry may decline after the "Prohibition of resistance", and the demand for antibiotics will increase accordingly in case of diseases; In addition, the new version of GMP promotes the continuous improvement of industry concentration. The company's products, such as tilmicosin enteric coated granules, long-acting crystal cefotaxifur injection, decaoquinate dry suspension and many other new veterinary drugs, are the first in the world, and the three single products of florfenicol, warnemolin and totrozuli rank among the top in the international market share. At the same time, the company raised 1.34 billion yuan by issuing shares to specific objects, the industrial scale continued to expand, and technological progress and upgrading were conducive to the long-term development of the company. The funds raised mainly include the international standard veterinary drug preparation automation factory construction project (RMB 200 million), natural plant extraction industrial base project (RMB 150 million), South China biological large-scale suspension culture workshop project (RMB 160 million), Zhongan biological reconstruction and expansion project (RMB 250 million), etc. It will help the company improve its independent R & D strength, enhance its innovation ability in the fields of genetic engineering vaccine and key core processes of vaccine, and the company's development trend will be better in the long run.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.09 yuan, 1.39 yuan and 1.79 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE will be 13 / 11 / 8 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the progress of product development is less than expected, animal epidemic at the breeding end, etc
