\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 493 Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) )
Event: on April 28, the company released the first quarterly report of 2022: the operating revenue of 2022q1 was 68.601 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98.38% and a month on month increase of 43.92%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.116 billion yuan, an increase of 18.85% year-on-year and 15.32% month on month; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.982 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21.29% and a month on month decrease of 4.6%.
Comments:
Refining and chemical continued to contribute to the performance, and Q1 revenue increased significantly. In 2022q1, the operating revenue was 68.601 billion yuan, an increase of 98.38% year-on-year and 43.92% month on month. In terms of profitability, the gross profit margin in 2022q1 was 19.27%, down 4.07pct year-on-year and 5.15pct month on month; The net interest rate was 8.43%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.89pct and a month on month decrease of 1.89pct; Roe was 6.19%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.66pct and a month on month increase of 0.5pct. Due to the repeated epidemic and the upward movement of oil price, the profitability of the company decreased slightly. In terms of period expenses, the period expense rate of 2022q1 company was 2.87%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.98pct. Among them, the sales expense rate was 0.08%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.03pct, the management expense (including R & D expenses, comparable caliber) rate was 1.55%, a year-on-year increase of 0.04pct, and the financial expense rate was 1.24%, a year-on-year decrease of 2pct. Through strengthening internal management innovation, the company introduced ERP system to optimize business process, reducing costs and increasing efficiency significantly. The company’s refining and chemical project output continues to climb, the extension of the large refining and chemical platform, the diversification of downstream products and the cost advantage brought by the company’s integration are the reasons for the performance growth.
The short-term price difference of products is under pressure, and the capacity expansion consolidates the leading position. The average price of 2022q1brent crude oil was US $102 / barrel, an increase of 67.22% year-on-year. The rise of oil price pushed up the price of main products. In terms of price, according to wind, the average price of 2022q1px (reference price) is 7362 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 567 yuan / ton (+ 8.35%); The average price of PTA (East China) is 5654 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 734 yuan / ton (+ 14.93%); The average price of polyester filament POY is 7880 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 136 yuan / ton (+ 1.76%); In terms of price difference, the average price difference of PX naphtha was US $408 / ton, up 27.89% month on month. The average price difference of pta-px (domestic) was 813 yuan / ton, an increase of 78.72% month on month; The average price difference of bisphenol a-phenol-acetone was 6656 yuan / ton, down 16.2% month on month; The average price difference between POY, PTA and ethylene glycol was 1263 yuan / ton, down 23.34% month on month. The company’s capacity is expanding rapidly: at present, the company has a PX capacity of 10.5 million tons / year and a PTA capacity of about 19 million tons / year; The total production capacity of polyester filament, bottle sheet and film is 4.5 million tons / year, ranking in the forefront of the country.
The second phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical is fully put into operation, and the development of new materials for large-scale refining and chemical industry is promoted in coordination. According to the calculation of the investment income project of associated enterprises disclosed by Tongkun, Zhejiang Petrochemical brought a profit of 2.723 billion yuan to the company in 2022q1. Since the first phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical Project was put into operation, the production of each unit has progressed smoothly, the operating load has increased steadily, and the profitability has been gradually enhanced; Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II project was fully put into operation in January 2022, adding 20 million tons / year of refining capacity, 6.6 million tons / year of aromatics and 1.4 million tons / year of ethylene production capacity, keeping up with the pace of phase I project and maintaining a state of efficient and stable operation. Compared with phase I, the output of fine chemical products in phase II project is richer, for example, polyethylene covers low-density, high-density and linear low-density products, including EVA, polycarbonate Butadiene and other products deserve further improvement in product utilization and added value, which is expected to drive the company’s performance to a higher level. Among them, 300000 tons of EVA device was successfully put into operation on December 28, 2021. At present, photovoltaic products have been successfully produced. In addition, Hainan Yisheng’s 50000 tons of food grade recycled polyester bottle chip (RPET) was successfully put into operation in December 2021, and another 90000 tons of production capacity is being promoted. After all put into operation, Hainan Yisheng will become China’s largest food grade RPET supplier, Ningbo Yisheng new material 6 million T / a PTA project, Ningbo Zhongjin Petrochemical 200000 t / a xylene project, and Shaoxing Yongsheng technology optical film and photovoltaic backplane film under construction, The planned project is under construction, and Shengyuan chemical fiber phase II is also under intensive construction. The company continues to expand the industrial chain of new materials, continuously promote the growth of product added value, and bring about a quadratic growth curve.
Risk tips: 1) the epidemic repeatedly affects the macroeconomic downside risk; 2) Risk of sharp decline in international crude oil prices; 3) Risk that the project is put into operation less than expected; 4) Geopolitics brings downside risks to the economy.
Profit forecast: the full operation of Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II project will contribute to the performance increment, extend new materials and promote the growth of product added value. We estimate that from 2022 to 2024, it will be 13.218 billion yuan, 15.236 billion yuan and 17.454 billion yuan respectively, and EPS will be 1.31 yuan, 1.50 yuan and 1.72 yuan respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
