\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Zhenye(Group)Co.Ltd(000006) 25 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) )
Key points of announcement: the company achieved an operating revenue of 105142 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 24.33%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.552 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.87%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was RMB 1.653 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 150.85%. In 2021q4, the company achieved an operating revenue of 25.942 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of – 9.68% / + 15.74% respectively, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 560 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of – 55.64%.
Q4’s performance is slightly lower than our expectation, and it continues to add weight to the new energy field: 1) 2021q4 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) independent brand sales volume is 272200, with a month on month ratio of – 13.67% / – 2.13% respectively. Uni-k, 2022 uni-t / cs75plus / cs55plus and other new products are listed, and the product structure is continuously optimized. Q4 gross profit margin was 18.88%, with a month on month ratio of -1.45pct / + 1.49pct. 2) In terms of expense ratio, the sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratio of Q4 company was 5.80% / 2.16% / 5.51% / – 1.25% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.05pct / – 4.50pct / + 2.53pct / – 1.06pct respectively and a month-on-month increase of + 1.36pct / – 1.06pct / + 2.88pct / – 0.26pct respectively; The large year-on-year decline in the rate of administrative expenses is mainly due to the decrease in the positive integral expenses of purchasing new energy. The negative integral expenses of fuel consumption of the company were 176 million yuan in 2021 and 738 million yuan in 2020, with a year-on-year decrease of – 76.15%; The large year-on-year increase in R & D expense rate is mainly due to the increase in technology and employee salary investment in the company’s intelligent electric field. 3) The company’s investment income remained stable. Q4 investment income was 327 million yuan, a month on month increase of – 8.68%, turning positive year-on-year. In terms of core subsidiaries, in 2021h2, Changan Ford / Changan Mazda / Changan new energy technology realized net profits of RMB 1.558286/ – 1.808 billion respectively. Changan Ford keeps improving. In 2021h2, Changan Ford achieved an operating revenue of 35.651 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.87%, a sales volume of 178600 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 14.59%, and an average price of 199600 yuan per vehicle, a slight decrease year-on-year. The profit of brand bicycles improved significantly, reaching 8700 yuan in 2021h2, a year-on-year increase of + 17.61%.
Intensive launch of new cars and acceleration of electric transformation: looking forward to the whole year of 2022, 1) the shortage of chips at the industry level continues to ease; 2) Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) new generation new energy products are intensively listed. Lumin, c385 and avita 112022h2 in the field of pure electricity will also launch a uni series hybrid model and two new modifications of CS Series. In the long run, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) with two pure electric brands of dark blue / avita and uni / CS / Auchan and other series of fuel vehicles, will continue to make progress. In 2025, it is planned to launch more than 30 new products, covering different markets such as high-end intelligent electric vehicles, mainstream passenger vehicles and small vehicles, and strengthen the self-research and promotion of core technologies, so as to strive to achieve the sales target of 4 / 3 / 1.05 million Changan overall / Changan independent / Changan new energy in 2025.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the repeated epidemic in China and the rise in the price of bulk raw materials, we lowered the profit forecast of Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) 20222023 to 4.65/7 billion yuan (previously 5.9/7 billion yuan), and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 is expected to be 7.5 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.60/0.74/0.98 yuan and the corresponding PE is 15 / 12 / 9 times. Maintain Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) “buy” rating.
Risk tip: chip shortage recovery is lower than expected; The epidemic control was lower than expected.
