\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 379 Zhejiang Sanmei Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(603379) )
On the evening of April 28, Zhejiang Sanmei Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(603379) released the first quarter report of 2022. During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.180 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.41%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 193 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 203.87%.
Key investment points:
The price of main products rose, and Q1 performance maintained a high growth year-on-year: the company's performance in the first quarter increased significantly year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in the price of main products in varying degrees year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021. 1. The average price of fluorine refrigerant in 2022q1 increased significantly by 72.69% year-on-year to 30700 yuan / ton; The sales revenue was 829 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.24%. 2. The average price of 2022q1 fluorine foaming agent was 17400 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 3.72%; The sales revenue was 803846 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.01%. 3. The average price of hydrogen fluoride was 841344 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 15.23%; The sales revenue was 159 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.79%. The company's performance in the first quarter was in line with expectations.
The cost side support weakened and the inventory increased, and the price of main products decreased month on month: from the month on month perspective, the price of main products of 2022q1 company decreased in varying degrees, including the fluorine refrigerant decreased by 15% month on month; Fluorine foaming agent fell 4.9% month on month; Hydrogen fluoride fell 5.73% month on month. The main reason for the decline in the price of the company's main products is: 1.1 The price of some raw materials fell, and the cost side lost support. In 2022q1, the average price of fluorite powder, the raw material of hydrogen fluoride, fell by 0.12% month on month, and that of sulfuric acid fell by 0.02% month on month; The average price of raw material vinylidene chloride of fluorine foaming agent R141b decreased by 19.51% month on month; Trichloroethylene, the raw material of R134a, decreased by 36.55% and dichloromethane, the raw material of R32, decreased by 5.32% month on month. 2. The influence of dual control of energy consumption was eliminated, and the mainstream refrigerant production enterprises started normally. In the first quarter, the export of port goods was blocked, adding that the epidemic situation in China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was repeated at the end of the first quarter, and the logistics in nearby regions was also affected to a certain extent. The shipping rhythm of the refrigerant industry may be affected, further leading to inventory growth. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, as of the end of March, the factory inventory of R125, R32 and R134a increased by 14.75%, 51.62% and 19.12% respectively compared with the beginning of the year. The sufficient supply of products suppressed the rise of refrigerant prices. 3. Downstream air conditioners, refrigerators and other manufacturers at the demand side purchase on demand, which has weak support for product prices.
Refrigerant prices have bottomed out in the short term and continue to rise in the long term with the tightening of supply. At present, the price of three generations of refrigerants has entered a phased bottom range. It is expected that the product price is expected to rise with the mitigation of the epidemic in China, the improvement of downstream demand and the growth of export orders. In the long run, the three generations of refrigerants will soon enter the era of quota management, and the oversupply of the industry will end. In this process, the refrigerant price will show a central upward trend and return to a reasonable level. The profitability of the company is expected to improve gradually. In addition, the company will have fluorine in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 865 / 1434 / 1773 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding P / E will be 12.9 / 7.8 / 6.3 respectively (corresponding to the closing price of 18.28 yuan on April 28). Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk factors: macroeconomic depression and repeated epidemics lead to the risk that the downstream demand of products is lower than expected; Overseas sanctions on Chinese refrigerant products have increased, resulting in the risk that export orders are less than expected; Risk that the price trend of main products is lower than expected due to the oversupply of refrigerant; Risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices.
