\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Event: in 2021, the company realized a revenue of 19.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.8%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.6%. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 18.0 yuan (including tax) to all shareholders for every 10 shares; In 2022q1, the revenue was 10.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 43.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 70.0%. The performance was consistent with the previous announcement and in line with market expectations.
Blue and white high growth led the upgrading, and the growth rate of the southern market was bright. 1. In terms of products, Fenjiu achieved a revenue of 17.92 billion yuan in the whole year, a year-on-year increase of + 41.9%. Qinghua series led a high growth, of which qing20 grew rapidly. Fuxing version actively promoted circle marketing and atmosphere shaping. 21h2 company actively controlled the volume of Bofen, and the growth slowed down. Series liquor and prepared liquor were 640 million yuan (+ 12.7%) and 1.25 billion (+ 91.4%) respectively, of which Qinghua series were in high volume. 2. In terms of sub regions, the revenue inside and outside the province reached 8.07 billion yuan (+ 34.6%) and 11.74 billion yuan (+ 49.5%) respectively, and the proportion outside the province increased by 2.6 percentage points to 59.3%. The market construction of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta has entered the harvest period, driving the average increase of sales in the southern market to more than 60%; At the same time, with the release of brand potential energy, the drainage effect of famous liquor is significant, the number of dealers outside the province has increased by 545 to 2796, and the proportion of large and excellent merchants has continued to increase. 3. The revenue of 21q4 was 2.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 24.8%, mainly due to the company’s active control of the delivery rhythm; 22q1’s revenue was 10.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 43.6%, of which blue and white performed well, of which green 20 led the high growth, and the volume of Renaissance version was accelerated. It is expected that 22q1’s blue and white accounted for more than 40%, and the structure was accelerated.
Profitability improved significantly and cash flow continued to improve. 1. In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin increased by 2.9 percentage points to 75.2%, mainly benefiting from the increase of ton price driven by the high growth of blue and white; In terms of expense ratio, the sales expense ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 15.8% year-on-year, the management expense ratio decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 5.8%, the structural upgrading superimposed cost optimization, the annual net interest rate increased by 4.6 percentage points to 26.6%, and the profitability was significantly enhanced. 2. 22q1’s gross profit margin increased by 1.2 percentage points to 74.7%, and the sales expense rate decreased by 6.8 percentage points, mainly due to the significant increase in revenue and the release of brand potential energy, the net profit margin increased by 5.4 percentage points to 35.2% year-on-year, and the profitability reached a new high; In addition, 22q1 sales received 8.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 71.9%. At the end of the first quarter, the contract liabilities were 3.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.4%, and the cash flow was healthy and good.
We have made a good start and are optimistic about the high elasticity of the whole year. 1. Under the macroeconomic pressure and sporadic outbreak of the epidemic, the company made a good start as scheduled, the demand was resilient, and the growth rate continued to lead the first-line famous wines; Looking forward to 2022, the revenue growth target of about 25% is expected to be exceeded. 2. President yuan, the new chairman of the board, has strong annual strength. In 2022, he aims to take the promotion of brand value as the primary goal and take advantage of the momentum to promote the development of Fenjiu to achieve higher quality. President yuan clearly puts forward the “Four Focuses” and “four insistences”, with clear direction and clear planning, and the reform dividend is expected to be released continuously.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. The release of the company’s brand potential is accelerated and the national expansion is getting better. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 6.54 yuan, 8.97 yuan and 12.02 yuan respectively, corresponding to 42 times, 30 times and 22 times of dynamic valuation, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the risk of sharp economic decline and the risk of repeated covid-19 epidemic.
