\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 915 Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co.Ltd(603915) )
The performance of 21 years was in line with expectations, and the performance of Q1 decreased slightly due to the epidemic. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 2.944 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 34.81%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 462 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 28.66%. After excluding the impact of equity incentive, the company increased by 33.95% year-on-year. Among them, the income of gear reducer, cycloid pin gear reducer and gnord reducer was 2.131/5.16/165 billion yuan respectively, both of which maintained a rapid growth. In 2022, Q1 company achieved an operating revenue of 610 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.05%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 65 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.55%. The slight decline in the company’s business performance in March was mainly caused by the continuous impact of the epidemic situation on the company’s normal production in Changzhou. On the whole, the company has maintained rapid growth in 21 years and the slight decline in Q1 performance in 22 years due to the impact of the epidemic is in line with our judgment of the company.
The gross profit margin remained controllable as a whole, and the increase of expenses during the period suppressed the level of the company’s net profit margin. The gross profit margin of the company’s annual sales in 2021 was 27.12%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.12% compared with that in 2020. The gross profit margin of Q1 sales in 2022 was 25.21%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.18%. Considering the continuous rise of raw materials, the company maintained a stable and controllable state as a whole through internal cost control and external price increase. In terms of net interest rate, the company’s sales net interest rate in 2021 was 15.64%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%. The net interest rate in Q1 in 2022 was 10.56%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.84%. The decline in net interest rate was mainly due to the increase of the company’s management expenses and R & D expenses. The R & D rates in Q1 in 2021 and 2022 were 3.82/5.75% and 0.24/2.26% respectively, and the management rates in the same period were 3.66/4.10% and 0.43/0.37% respectively.
Geno’s high-end reducer can be expected in large quantities, and is firmly optimistic about the company’s multi-dimensional product layout strategy. Based on the production and sales of high-end reducers, Zeno, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, competes directly with sew and other foreign first-class brands. In 2021, the gross profit margin of Zeno’s high-end reducers was 21.96%. Considering its strategic positioning, the gross profit margin of Zeno’s products still has great room to improve. At the same time, with the continuous promotion of Zeno’s high-end reducer expansion project, Zeno has made great efforts in the lithium slurry mixing reducer Market in terms of market, The sales of key customers have achieved substantial growth. Under the guarantee of production capacity, the company’s Gino brand products can be expected in large quantities. In addition, the company has expanded the product lines of construction machinery industry and industrial gearbox business, covering many downstream fields such as construction machinery, cement, coal, electric power, port and water conservancy. The multi-dimensional product layout has effectively enhanced the growth and performance sustainability of the company.
Profit forecast and valuation. It is estimated that from 2022 to 2024, the company will achieve revenue of 3.683 billion yuan, 4.607 billion yuan and 5.686 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 584 million yuan, 751 million yuan and 944 million yuan respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price is 15.4, 12.0 and 9.6 times respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tips: downward trend of manufacturing investment, risk of epidemic impact, price fluctuation of raw materials
