\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Zhenye(Group)Co.Ltd(000006) 25 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) )
Key points of announcement: Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) 2022q1 achieved an operating revenue of 34.576 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 7.96% / + 33.28% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.536 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 431.45% / + 709.75% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was RMB 2.270 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 215.24%.
Q1’s profit improved significantly on a month on month basis, mainly due to the increase of gross profit margin & remarkable effect of cost control & Q1’s one-time investment benefited a lot: 1) Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) independent brand 2022q1 achieved wholesale sales of 360700 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of – 1.72% / + 32.53% respectively, and the chip shortage continued to improve on a month on month basis. The gross profit margin of Q1 was 18.21%, with a month on month increase of + 4.10pct / – 0.67pct respectively, mainly due to the continuous optimization of product structure and the increase in the sales proportion of high priced models such as the second generation cs55 plus and uni-v in 2022q1. 2) The sales / management / R & D expense ratio of Q1 company was 3.50% / 2.35% / 2.78% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.34pct / – 1.54pct / + 0.56pct respectively and a month on month increase of -2.30pct / + 0.19pct / – 2.73pct respectively; The large year-on-year decline in the rate of administrative expenses is mainly due to the high base caused by the provision of fuel and new energy points in the same period last year, and the large month on month decline in the rate of sales / R & D expenses is mainly due to the high base of 2021q4. On a year-on-year basis, it has increased slightly due to the increase of new vehicle listing publicity expenses and entrusted development. 3) Q1 investment income was 2.238 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 687% / + 584% respectively, of which 110 million yuan was invested in associates and joint ventures, and the rest was mainly the one-time income brought by the company’s loss of control over avita Technology (Chongqing) Co., Ltd. and the re measurement of the remaining equity at fair value, totaling 2.128 billion yuan. 4) Q1 company’s cash flow from operating activities was 769 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 89.37%, mainly due to the significant increase in payment for goods to suppliers; The net cash flow from Q1 investment activities was -2.228 billion yuan, a significant increase compared with last year (last year was -457 million yuan), mainly due to the significant increase in investment in associates, and the cash paid for direct investment was 1.459 billion yuan, up from 0 in the same period last year.
In 2022, new cars will be launched intensively and the transformation of electrification will be accelerated: looking forward to the whole year of 2022, 1) the shortage of chips at the industry level will continue to ease; 2) Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) new generation new energy products are intensively listed. Lumin, c385 and avita 11 are three heavy-duty products in the field of pure electricity. 2022h2 will also launch a uni series hybrid model and two new modifications of CS Series. In the long run, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) with two pure electric brands of dark blue / avita and fuel vehicles such as uni / CS / Auchan, it is planned to launch more than 30 new products to cover different markets in 2025, strengthen self-research on core technologies, and strive to achieve the sales target of 3 / 1.05 million Changan independent / Changan new energy vehicles in 2025.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the increase of gross profit margin and the strengthening of expense control due to the accrual of one-time equity investment income in 2022q1 and the optimization of product structure, we raised the profit of Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) 20222024 to RMB 7.6/79/9 billion (previously RMB 4.6/57/7.5 billion), the corresponding EPS to RMB 1.00/1.04/1.19 and the corresponding PE to 10 / 9 / 8 times, maintaining the “buy” rating of Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) .
Risk warning: epidemic control is lower than expected; The sales volume of new cars is climbing lower than expected.
