\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 258 Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) )
Core view
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. The revenue of 22q1 was 1.212 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 4.64%. The net profit attributable to the parent company lost 232 million yuan (vs21q1 lost 182 million yuan), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company lost 259 million yuan (vs21q1 lost 190 million yuan).
Affected by the epidemic situation in Shanghai and other places and the upgrading of epidemic prevention policies, the loss expanded year-on-year and month on month. The company's 22q1 hotel business income is 1.108 billion yuan / - 4.0% YoY, and the scenic spot business income is 1.05 / - 11.1% YoY; The total profit of hotel business was - 325 million yuan / year-on-year loss increased by 46 million yuan, and the total profit of scenic spot business was 53 million yuan / - 12.3% yoy. The increased pressure in the first quarter was mainly due to the control of the epidemic situation in North China during the Winter Olympic Games. Since late February, the epidemic situation has occurred in Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places, and the national epidemic prevention measures have been comprehensively upgraded. As a result, the overall RevPAR of 22q1 of the company decreased by 8.8% year-on-year and only recovered to 61% in the same period of 19 years. 22q1 sales expense rate 4.7% / - 0.9pctyoy, management expense rate 15.2% / + 1.9pctyoy, financial expense rate 9.3% / - 0.8pctyoy; The net cash flow of 22q1 operating activities was 106 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 47%, mainly due to the increase of expropriated epidemic prevention hotels and the slow recovery of expropriated funds.
New stores maintain high speed, light management and medium and high-end. 22q1 opened 190 new stores, an increase of 4 over the same period last year, including 31 / 57 / 101 / 1 for economy / medium and high-end / light management / others respectively, and the light management mode accelerated the opening of stores; As of 22q1, there were 1827 reserve stores, an increase of 36 over 21q4, of which economic / medium and high-end / light management / others accounted for 17% / 30% / 53% / 1% respectively, laying a solid foundation for the goal of 18002000 new stores in 22 years. The overall RevPAR / ADR / OCC of 22q1 was 86 yuan / 174 yuan / 49.2% respectively, which recovered to 61% / 92% / 65% in the same period of 19 years. The number of members continued to rise, and the total number of members was 134 million / + 4.7% yoy.
Q2 industry pressure will further increase, but the dawn is approaching. Since April, the epidemic in Shanghai and other places has continued to ferment, and the impact on tourism travel has been greater than that in March. According to STR data, the RevPAR of hotels in Chinese Mainland in the first three weeks of April was only less than 40% of that in the same period of 19 years. At the same time, the Civil Aviation Administration of China predicts that the national civil aviation passenger volume will decline by 77% year-on-year during the May Day holiday. However, at the same time, the inflection point of the epidemic in Shanghai has emerged, social aspects have been cleared in many districts, normalized nucleic acid sampling points have been built on a large scale in Shanghai, Hangzhou and other places, and the recovery of tourism travel is expected to gradually approach.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
As the epidemic still has a great impact on Q2 and the pace of subsequent recovery is uncertain, we adjusted the company's EPS forecast for 202224 to 0.19/0.97/1.33 yuan (0.43/1.06/1.42 yuan before adjustment). As the performance of industrial companies in 2022 fluctuated greatly affected by the epidemic, we used 28 times PE of comparable companies in 23 years for valuation, corresponding to the target price of 27.27 yuan, and maintained the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The epidemic spread beyond expectations; The progress of opening new stores is less than expected; The macroeconomic downturn affects the investment confidence of franchisees
