\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 77 Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) )
Event: the company announced on April 28 that in 2021, it realized revenue of 412 million yuan (+ 5.72%), net profit attributable to parent company of 201 million yuan (- 13.38%), gross profit margin of 77.08% (- 6.81 PCTs) and net profit margin of 48.88% (- 10.77 PCTs). In 2022q1, the revenue was 173 million yuan (+ 135.91%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 91 million yuan (+ 183.83%), the gross profit margin was 69.25% (- 8.91pcts), and the net profit margin was 52.47% (+ 8.86pcts).
Key investment points:
22q1's performance increased rapidly, which offset the impact of price reduction: Although the company's carbon fiber and fabric sales increased in 2021 (156.06 tons, + 34.35%), due to the impact of product price reduction, the company's revenue increased by only 5.72% in 2021, while the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 13.38%, and the gross profit margin (77.08%) decreased by 6.81 PCTs year-on-year. Benefiting from the release of the company's production capacity and the increase in the demand of downstream customers, the company's performance in 2022q1 achieved a significant growth, with revenue increasing by 135.91% and net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by 183.83%. The impact of price reduction was offset to a certain extent. Although there was a sharp decline in gross profit margin on the surface (69.25%, -8.91pcts), we believe that it was mainly due to the transfer of depreciation of new production capacity to cost. By product, in 2021, the company's carbon fiber revenue was 320 million yuan (- 2.96%), and the gross profit margin was 76.57% (- 7.58 PCTs); The revenue of carbon fiber fabric was 92 million yuan (+ 53.39%), and the gross profit margin was 78.81% (- 3.61 PCTs). The company added carbon fiber fabric equipment in 2021, and the production capacity doubled year-on-year, which promoted the rapid growth of fabric revenue to a certain extent.
Further reduction of expense rate: the company's three-year rate (15.50%, - 6.85 PCTs) in 2021 decreased rapidly, of which the sales expense was 3.2749 million yuan (+ 35.43%), mainly due to the increase of asset depreciation expense of the sales department; The administrative expenses were 62 million yuan (- 26.68%), mainly due to the decrease of depreciation and repair expenses included in the administrative expenses; The financial expenses were -963800 yuan (- 229.27%), mainly due to the decrease of interest expenses. For the rapid decline of the company's net profit margin (48.88%, - 10.77 PCTs), on the one hand, the price reduction affects the decline of gross profit margin, on the other hand, it is due to the decrease of the company's other income in 2021 (RMB 115591 million, - 74.93%).
Continue to strengthen scientific research, and new products are the guarantee of the company's future performance: the company's R & D expenses in 2021 were 444879 million yuan (+ 44.98%), and the proportion of revenue further increased (10.80%, + 2.92 PCTs). According to the development idea of "exploration generation, pre research generation, development generation and batch production generation", the company has continuously increased its research and development efforts. The higher performance carbon fiber products developed by the company have been provided to customers for new product verification, which has laid a good foundation for the sustainable and rapid development of the company's high-performance carbon fiber products in the aerospace field. In addition, the company continues to develop new carbon fiber projects, including domestic t1100, 9h, 8e, zm40h carbon fiber preparation and domestic m60j ultra-high modulus carbon fiber core technology research projects.
The "thousand ton" project has passed the verification and review, and will continue to expand 1500 tons of production capacity: the 1000 tons of production capacity (12K) project invested by the company's IPO has passed the verification and review in September 2021 and can be officially put into operation and delivered. At the same time, the company completed the additional issuance in March 2022, raising 2 billion yuan at a price of 50.55 yuan / share, which is mainly used for the project of high performance carbon fiber and fabric products and supplement liquidity, and will continue to expand 1500 tons of production capacity (12K), The construction period is 4 years. We believe that the company's continuous expansion of production highlights the strong demand in the downstream aerospace field to a certain extent. The landing of production capacity in the future will continue to open up the company's profit space.
With the signing of large order contracts, the certainty of the company's performance has improved: on March 14, 2022, Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) announced the signing of the product order contract for carbon fiber and carbon fiber fabric from 2022 to 2023 with customer a, with a contract amount of RMB 2.169 billion, 5.27 times of the operating revenue in 2021. We believe that the signing of large order contract mainly has the following meanings: ① determine the contract price and eliminate the bad luck of continuing to reduce the price; ② Expanding production means full production. From the point of view of the matching between the company's order cycle and the company's production capacity, if the order is to be delivered smoothly, it is basically necessary to produce at full capacity; ③ Further confirm that the downstream Aerospace boom is worry free; ④ The construction of new production capacity is expected to accelerate. Under the current situation of short supply, the breakthrough of the company's production capacity bottleneck is expected to accelerate.
Aviation Addsino Co.Ltd(000547) continues to drive the demand for high-performance carbon fiber: the rapid development of China's aerospace field will continue to drive the demand for carbon fiber, especially the explosive growth of the demand for high-performance carbon fiber by the replacement of military aircraft. Domestic high-performance carbon fiber will continue to maintain a good growth trend, and the demand structure will further move closer to high-end application fields. The company mainly produces high-performance carbon fiber series products of zt7 and above, which is different from general civil products. It is the embodiment of high technical barriers and high starting point competition in the application of high-end carbon fiber in aerospace. With the further improvement of the company's production capacity, it will improve the company's core competitiveness and consolidate the company's position in China's aerospace field and civil medium and high-end market.
Investment suggestion: as a domestic R & D manufacturer of high-performance carbon fiber and related products with completely independent intellectual property rights, the company has successfully broken the technical blockade of aerospace grade carbon fiber in developed countries and deeply bound the military supply system. With the rapid development of aerospace industry and the signing of large contracts, the company's performance is expected to continue to grow. At the same time, with the formal production of "thousand ton" capacity and the expansion of 1500 ton capacity invested by raising funds, the company's capacity level continues to improve, opens up market space and is expected to continue to increase the profitability. We estimate that the company's operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 917 million yuan, 1307 million yuan and 1651 million yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 472 million yuan, 675 million yuan and 854 million yuan respectively, and EPS will be 107 million yuan, 154 million yuan and 194 yuan respectively. We give a "buy" rating, with a target price of 60.00 yuan, corresponding to 56 times, 39 times and 31 times of the predicted EPS from 2022 to 2024.
Risk tips: the market demand of military products is lower than expected, the production of new production capacity is not smooth, the price of raw materials rises, the price of carbon fiber falls, the adjustment of military value-added tax policy, repeated epidemics, etc.
