\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) 601)
The "long voyage action" was fully launched, the transformation of life insurance was better than that of the industry, and the "buy" rating was maintained
The company disclosed the report for the first quarter of 2022. In 2022q1, the total premium income of CPIC life insurance was 99.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4.2%, and the new order business was 28.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.1%, which was mainly driven by the bank insurance channel of + 1108.1% year-on-year, and the new order premium of personal insurance channel was 9.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 44.1%, which was obviously under pressure. We believe that it was mainly due to the deepening of life insurance transformation, the repeated spread of epidemic and the slow release of guarantee demand. The operating revenue was 146.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 3.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 36.4%, which was mainly due to the volatility of the equity market in 2022q1 and the high base in the same period in 2021, resulting in a year-on-year decrease of - 33.3% in investment income. Due to the change of channel structure, the proportion of Bancassurance channel 2022q1 has significantly increased to 38.8%. It is expected that the margin will still be under pressure in 2022, but bancassurance channel will still contribute a certain amount of new single premium. We maintain the NBV from 2022 to 2024, which is expected to be - 9.7% / + 14.5% / + 9.5% year-on-year. Considering the large fluctuations in the equity market in 2022, we lowered the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to 188 / 320 / 42.1 billion yuan (353 / 515 / 565 billion yuan before the adjustment), and the corresponding EPS was 2.01/3.42/4.50 yuan. At the beginning of 2022, the company fully launched the phase I project of "long voyage action" to fully promote the transformation of agents and the logical upgrading of exhibition industry. The management has the successful experience and determination of transformation, and is expected to lead the industry in the progress of transformation. The current share price corresponds to 0.4/0.3/0.3 times of PEV from 2022 to 2024, maintaining the "buy" rating.
The channels of life insurance agents are under obvious pressure, and the proportion of Bancassurance channels has increased. Pay attention to the follow-up transformation progress
In 2022q1, the new single premium of CPIC life insurance personal insurance channel was 9.22 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 44.1%, of which the fixed-term payment business was 8.09 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 44.5%. The short-term pressure was obvious. The bancassurance channel set sail again, contributing 11.03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 1108.1%, which strongly supported the new single premium of the company. The proportion of Bancassurance channel increased to 38.8% (13.1% in 2021). It is expected that the change of channel structure will drag margin. The company's "long voyage action" has been fully launched, which is expected to accelerate the construction of the "three modernizations and five most" team system. The average monthly premium income of agents in the first year of 2022q1 is + 19.9% year-on-year, which is expected to be higher than the decline of manpower scale, the production capacity will be improved to a certain extent, and the transformation of life insurance liability side may lead the industry.
Property insurance achieved double-digit growth, and the comprehensive cost structure was further optimized
In 2022q1, the premium of property insurance was 49.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.0% (2021 + 3.3%), that of auto insurance was 24.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.8% (2021 - 4.0%), and that of non auto insurance was 25.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.2% (2021 + 16.9%). Auto insurance has achieved growth in the era after comprehensive reform, and accident and health insurance is expected to make some contribution in non auto insurance. The comprehensive cost ratio was 99.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2pct, the expense ratio decreased by 2.0pct to 28.7%, and the compensation ratio increased by 1.8pct to 70.4%. The cost structure was further optimized. The company's property insurance adheres to high-quality development and is expected to realize vehicle and non vehicle two wheel drive. We maintain the property insurance premium, which is expected to be + 12.3% / + 12.2% / + 13.2% year-on-year from 2022 to 2024. The market pattern is expected to be optimized and the market position will continue to improve.
Interest rate is longer than expected; The progress of life insurance transformation is slower than expected.
