\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 078 Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) )
Events
On April 28, the company released the first quarterly report of 2022, and 1q22 achieved a revenue of 9.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 26.48%; The net profit was 680 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 39.2% and a month on month increase of + 258%. The performance in the first quarter exceeded market expectations.
Business analysis
The price of 1q cultural paper has been steadily raised, and the profit per ton has exceeded the industry average. The price of cultural paper has been steadily repaired since reaching the bottom since October 21. At the end of March, the price of double offset paper / coated paper was 6230 / 5680 yuan / ton respectively, which was + 610 / + 290 yuan / ton compared with the end of December. After the Guangxi project was put into operation, the proportion of self supplied pulp of the company increased to 55-60%, and the profitability was weakened compared with the cost elasticity. The net profit per ton of 1q cultural paper was about 300 yuan, leading the industry average level. At present, it has been repaired to 400 + yuan / ton. The price increase letter of 200 yuan / ton has been issued in May, We expect that the profit per ton of cultural paper is expected to maintain quarterly upward repair during the year.
Dissolved pulp & Commercial Pulp contributes to the profit elasticity and highlights the advantages of balanced layout. 1) Dissolved pulp & chemical pulp: the atmosphere of dissolved pulp remains high. The price of dissolved pulp at the end of March is 8200 yuan / ton, which is + 1500 yuan / ton compared with that at the end of December. The short-term prosperity is maintained, and the price is expected to increase by 500 yuan / ton in May; The capacity of 800000 tons of chemical pulp of 4q21 company was released, and the contribution of some commercial pulp to foreign sales was elastic. The price of broad-leaved pulp at the end of March was 6130 yuan / ton, compared with + 1040 yuan / ton at the end of December. 2) Due to the demand of pulp box at the end of the peak season, the profit level of the company is still lower than that of the downstream industry, which is still lower than that of the pulp box at the end of December, and the profit level of the downstream industry is still lower than that of the downstream industry, which is still lower than that of the downstream industry, with the demand of pulp box at the end of December being lower than that of 483 tons.
4q net interest rate was + 4.7pct month on month, and the profit repair exceeded expectations. 1q’s gross profit margin was 13.97%, with a year-on-year increase of -9.5pct and a month on month increase of + 4.07pct. The ratio of sales / management / R & D / financial expenses was 0.4% 2.5 /% / 1.9% / 1.3%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.01pct / + 0.4pct / + 1PCT / – 0.8pct.
Promote Nanning’s 5.25 million ton Forest Pulp and paper integration project, and the medium and long-term growth logic is smooth. With the production of 220000 tons of H2 paper and 1 million tons of cultural paper, it has made a contribution to the short-term production of 1 million tons of H2 paper. After the completion of Guangxi Nanning project, the company is expected to further coordinate in product structure optimization, logistics system improvement and sales channel construction, complete the strategic layout of Shandong Laos Guangxi base and consolidate its leading position.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We expect that the company’s EPS in 22-24 years will be 1.18 yuan, 1.24 yuan and 1.35 yuan respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE is 10 / 10 / 9x respectively. Considering Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) as the leader of China’s paper industry, the company’s forestry pulp paper integration is expected to significantly reduce its cycle attribute and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The risk of lower than expected price rise of paper products due to lower than expected downstream demand; The risk that the schedule of new production capacity is not up to expectations; The risk of ineffective cost rate control of the company; Risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices.
