\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 653 Haisco Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002653) )
Event: Haisco Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002653) released the first quarterly report of 2022, and the main business income was 562 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.81%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 262032 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 90.88%; Deduct non net profit of 179384 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66.66%; Gross profit margin 69.72%; The sales expense is 197 million yuan, and the sales expense rate is 35.12%; The management fee is 72.47 million yuan, and the management fee rate is 12.89%; The R & D cost is 85.92 million yuan, and the R & D cost rate is 15.29%
Comments: the year-on-year decrease is mainly affected by the price reduction of core product medical insurance: in 2020, “dorasetron mesylate injection” was included in the national medical insurance catalogue through medical insurance negotiation, and the price of a single variety decreased significantly. The annual report shows that in 2021, tumor antiemetic products decreased by 85.6% from 1.018 billion in 2020 to 146 million yuan; The implementation time of medical insurance price reduction starts from March 1, 2021. Therefore, the Q1 base in 21 years is high, resulting in a large year-on-year apparent decline;
The trend of rapid release of cyclophenol remained unchanged. Cyclophenol is a self-developed class 1 intravenous anesthetic. It was approved to be listed in December 2020. During the reporting period, it was newly approved with indications such as “general anesthesia induction” and “sedation in bronchoscopy”. The sales of anesthetic products in the first half of 2021 was 7.57 million yuan, and the annual sales was 60.15 million yuan, with an obvious trend of acceleration and volume. The indications of cyclophenol “sedation during intensive care” and “sedation and anesthesia for gynecological outpatient surgery” were applied for NDA in December 2021 and January 2022 respectively. It is expected to be approved this year. The phase III clinical enrollment of general anesthesia induction indications in the United States is progressing smoothly. With the entry into the national medical insurance through negotiation in 21 years and the implementation from January 1, 2022, we expect to continue to accelerate the large-scale trend in 22 years to make up for the impact of the decline of traditional business;
Continuous R & D investment and innovative varieties drive a new round of growth: the company has eight class 1 innovative drug products entering the clinical stage. Except that cyclophenol has been listed, analgesic and antipruritic drugs (hsk21542), neuralgia drugs (hsk16149) and long-acting hypoglycemic drugs (hsk7653) are all in phase III; Among them, 7653 is expected to complete phase III and apply by the end of the year, 21542 is expected to complete phase III test, and 3-4 innovative drug applications ind are planned to be completed this year; In terms of internationalization, the company carried out two phase III trials of cyclophenol anesthesia induction (IGA) in the United States, and hsk29116 has obtained the ind approval from FDA in April 2022.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.47 billion yuan, 4.53 billion yuan and 5.55 billion yuan respectively; Year on year growth of 25%, 30.4% and 22.6% respectively; Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of drug research and development, the risk that the market capacity is less than expected, the risk of drug price reduction, etc.
