\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the revenue was 66.209 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.51%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 23.377 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.15%; The revenue of 22q1 was 27.548 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.25%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.823 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.08%.
Comments:
Achieved a double-digit start and steadily improved profitability. 21q4, the company’s revenue was 16.488 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.2%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.83%, which was consistent with the performance forecast. At the beginning of the 14th five year plan and 2022, the company maintained double-digit steady growth and implemented the theme of high-quality development. Thanks to the increase of ton price, the gross profit margin of 2021 and 22q1 was + 1.19pct, + 1.98pct to 75.35% and 78.41% respectively year-on-year, while the expense rate remained stable during the period, and the net profit margin was + 0.53pct, + 1.06pct to 37.01% and 41.28% respectively year-on-year, with the profitability improved. Due to the good start and the large amount of money collected before the year, the contract liabilities of the company were + 4.44 billion yuan to 13.06 billion yuan year-on-year at the end of 2021, and the revenue was recognized in 22q1. As of the end of the first quarter, the contract liabilities were 3.6 billion yuan, up to – 1.16 billion yuan year-on-year. Due to the rising price of dealers’ payment in 2022, in order to alleviate the negative emotions of dealers, the company allows more than 30 million large merchants to pay according to the acceptance bill, gives them a certain cost advantage and locks in part of the annual performance in advance. 22q1’s notes receivable rose from + 4.43 billion yuan to 28.29 billion yuan month on month, the highest level in history. Due to the increase of notes receivable, the sales collection in the cash flow statement in the first quarter declined, and the contract liabilities were the lowest level in recent three years.
Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) price and volume increased slightly, and the increase of series liquor exceeded 10 billion. In 2021, the revenue of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and series liquor was 49.112 billion yuan and 12.62 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.46% and + 50.72%. Among them, the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) volume increased by 3.78%, the price increased by 7.4%, and the gross profit margin increased by + 0.64pct to 85.59% year-on-year; Thanks to the upgrading of products and market cultivation, the volume of liquor increased by 15.32%, the price increased by 30.7%, and the gross profit margin increased by + 3.98pct to 59.67% year-on-year. In 2022, the company will raise the comprehensive price of the eighth generation and the fifth generation to 969 yuan / bottle. We expect that it will contribute about 5 percentage points to the price increase. The classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is also reshaping its value in the process of adjustment. Although it is plagued by insufficient demand under the disturbance of the epidemic in the short term, with the effect of the company’s measures on channel price control and channel profit improvement, the logic of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) not changing the price and volume increases together, The series of wines will also continue to strengthen on the basis of the return of brand value and structural optimization.
The proportion of direct sales increased, and the Eastern market grew strongly and steadily. In 2021, the proportion of direct selling increased from + 5.3pct to 18.8% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin of direct selling increased from + 0.4pct to 85.05% year-on-year, thickening the company’s profits. According to the disclosure in the annual report, the company achieved revenue of 18.8 billion yuan, 17 billion yuan, 11 billion yuan, 7.5 billion yuan and 7.4 billion yuan respectively in the eastern, western, central, northern and Southern markets, with a year-on-year increase of + 32.4%, – 8.2%, + 31.9%, + 30.2% and 21.1%. Among them, the Eastern market maintained a growth rate of more than 30% for two consecutive years, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and a series of wines showed strong performance. The southern, northern and central markets were mainly affected by the epidemic in the same period of last year, with a low base and good sales during the reporting period, The growth rate is high Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) in the western market, the sales declined significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of – 21.73% in 2021, accounting for -9.64pct to 22.74%. In addition to maintaining an average growth in the western market, which accounts for nearly half of the sales, the series liquor has nearly doubled the growth in the eastern and central markets. In terms of dealers, in 2021, the company had a net increase of 180 to 2656 dealers, of which Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) in the East, West, middle, North and South markets had a net increase of 36, 12, 20, 14 and 11 dealers respectively, and a net increase of 87 series liquor dealers.
Profit forecast and investment rating: in 2022, the company’s business goal is to continue to maintain double-digit steady growth in total operating revenue, adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, and seek room for both price and volume to rise. We expect the company’s diluted earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 to be 7.11 yuan, 8.26 yuan and 9.52 yuan respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk factors: macroeconomic uncertainty risk; Risk of recurrent epidemic
