\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 225 Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) )
The company's Q1 performance is under pressure. It is optimistic that the company will face the bottom reversal and maintain the "buy" rating
On April 28, the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. The company achieved an operating revenue of 10.602 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.98%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 285 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.75%. In mid March, the epidemic situation occurred frequently in East China, and the crude oil price remained high, which had a certain impact on the filament demand and profitability, and the Q1 performance of the company was under pressure. We maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 2.186 billion, RMB 3.219 billion and RMB 3.983 billion, corresponding to EPS of RMB 1.43, RMB 2.10 and RMB 2.60 per share respectively. The current share price corresponds to PE of 6.5, 4.4 and 3.6 times respectively. We are optimistic about the recovery of filament demand after the epidemic, the company will usher in bottom-up, and we are optimistic about the company's future growth and maintain the "buy" rating.
Q1 realized a net profit of 313 million yuan, which was basically the same month on month
Q1 company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 285 million yuan, a month on month increase of - 10.94%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 313 million yuan, which was basically the same month on month, of which the loss of hedging business was 84 million yuan. According to the business data, the average price of Q1 filament POY was 695667 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of about 116 yuan / ton. According to wind data, the average price difference of Q1 filament is 1265 yuan / ton, which is 360 yuan / ton lower than Q4, and the average price difference of q1pta is 214 yuan / ton, which is 236 yuan / ton lower than Q4. The company's Q1 filament sales volume was 1215700 tons, down 14.07% month on month. In March, covid-19 epidemic spread in East China, and the company's product price, price difference and sales volume were under pressure. As of April 28, the price difference of POY was 640 yuan / ton and that of PTA was 153 yuan / ton; The operating rate of weaving industry is 55%, which is at the low level in the same period; POY inventory days were 27.7 days. Near May Day, filament enterprises reduced prices and shipped goods, with local production and sales volume. POY inventory decreased by about 7 days compared with April 21.
At present, affected by the epidemic, filament demand and price difference are weak, and we are firmly optimistic about the arrival of the inflection point after the epidemic
We believe that the short-term disturbance will not change the long-term development direction of the company. At present, the epidemic situation in East China has shown a good trend. After the epidemic, the restrained demand for textile and clothing will eventually be released. We are firmly optimistic that the fundamentals of the company will usher in a bottom-up after the epidemic situation. According to the announcement, at present, the company has 6.3 million tons of polyester filament and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of polyester staple fiber. We expect that the company will invest 300000 tons of polyester filament and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of polyester staple fiber in 2022. We continue to be optimistic about the future. The profit center of the company will gradually rise with the release of production capacity, and the growth is still expected.
Risk tip: the oil price has decreased significantly; Weak downstream demand; The production capacity was lower than expected.
