\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 233 Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) )
Performance review
Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) 2022 released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022 on April 27, 2022. The company achieved a net profit of 7.332 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 158.44% year-on-year in 2020, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.503 billion yuan in Q1 in 2022, a decrease of 12.46% year-on-year in 2021.
Business analysis
Zhejiang Petrochemical continued to release its performance and promote the growth of the company's performance: referring to Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) annual report, the net profit of Zhejiang Petrochemical in 2021 was about 22.296 billion yuan, bringing investment income of 4.46 billion yuan to the company in the whole year. Referring to Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) annual report, only 12.5% of Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II project had been converted from left to right by the end of 2021, and the actual profit contribution was limited. The richness and deep processing level of end products planned for Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II project are far higher than that of Zhejiang Petrochemical phase I. after the phase II project is fully completed, the profits brought by Zhejiang Petrochemical may far exceed the market expectations
Deep processing projects are put into operation to increase the added value of products and is expected to weaken the periodicity of performance: Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II project includes new materials used in photovoltaic, new energy vehicles and other fields. Driven by the global "double carbon" policy, the end consumption demand of new energy related materials is high and the growth is strong. In the first quarter of 2022, the investment income of Tongkun (the equity part of Zhejiang Petrochemical) reached 1.068 billion yuan, an increase of 22.75% compared with the same period of 2021. The net profit of Zhejiang Petrochemical in the first quarter of 2022 is about 5.34 billion yuan. Under the scenario of continuous rise in the central prices of crude oil and coal, due to the continuous production of deep-processing products, the scenario that the weighted sales price increase of many large-scale new energy and new materials and other terminal products is higher than that of raw materials will be reflected in succession, Thus, the certainty of sustainable growth is strong. With the gradual release of phase II performance of Zhejiang Petrochemical, the periodicity of the company's performance is significantly weakened.
Investment advice
At present, the price center of the raw material end continues to rise, while the terminal high value-added products are expected to be released gradually from 2022 to 2024, and the stock capacity performance may be under pressure. We have lowered the profit forecast for 20222023. Under the extreme boom bottom scenario of the industry, Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) 20222024, the profit forecast is 7.83 billion yuan / 9.25 billion yuan / 10.85 billion yuan, with a reduction rate of 29% and 30% respectively in 20222023, corresponding to EPS of 3.25 yuan / 3.84 yuan / 4.50 yuan in 20222024, The corresponding PE is 4.4x/3.7x/3.2x respectively.
Risk tips
\u3000\u30001. Risk of large one-way fluctuation of oil price; 2. Serious terminal demand and deterioration of demand; 3. Geopolitical risks; 4. The construction progress of the project is less than expected; 5. Risk of large fluctuation of US dollar exchange rate; 6. Other force majeure effects
