\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 887 Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) )
Performance review
On April 27, the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the total operating revenue was 110595 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.15%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.705 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.98%. 21q4 achieved a total operating revenue of 25.588 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.70%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 761 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 27.82%. 22q1 achieved a total operating revenue of 31.047 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.47%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.519 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.32%.
Business analysis
The volume and price of each business increased simultaneously, and the key categories continued to make breakthroughs. The revenue of liquid milk / milk powder and dairy products / cold drinks in 21 years was + 11.5% / 25.8% / 16.3%, 21q4 was + 7.2% / + 29.1% / 72.2%, 22q1 was + 7.0% / 35.3% / 35.5% year on year respectively. The liquid milk was stable and the milk powder accelerated month on month. In 2021, the volume / price / structure of liquid milk contributed 58% / 23% / 19% respectively, the volume / price / structure of milk powder and dairy products contributed 43% / 49% / 8% respectively, and the volume / price / structure of cold drinks contributed 31% / 12% / 28% respectively; The volume and price of all categories have increased simultaneously, and the structural upgrading effect is remarkable, which confirms that the prosperity of terminal demand is good. Key categories Jindian, anmushi, jinlingguanying powder, qiaolezi and Zhen Xi increased by 15.83% year-on-year, and Jindian’s sales exceeded 20 billion.
After Q4, the gross profit margin continued to improve slightly. In the 21st year, the company adjusted the freight and daily repair expenses of fixed assets to the operating cost. After restoration, the gross profit margin / sales rate / management rate in the 21st year were + 0.47 / + 0.04 / – 0.19pct year-on-year respectively, and the gross sales difference was + 0.43pct year-on-year. 21q4 gross profit margin / sales rate / management rate / gross sales difference were -22.81 / – 16.38 / – 4.80 / – 6.43pct year-on-year respectively. Considering the impact of accounting standards, the gross profit margin increased slightly after 21q4 restoration. In addition, the marketing expenses of the Winter Olympic Games were mainly accrued in 21q4. After the restoration of 22q1, the gross profit margin / sales rate / management rate / gross sales difference were + 2.09 / + 1.18 / – 0.22 / + 0.91pct year-on-year respectively. Since 22 years, the milk price has gradually dropped and the profit space has been gradually optimized. The net interest rate of 21q4 / 22q1 was – 1.6 / + 1.0pct year-on-year. The net interest rate in the 21st year was raised by 0.6pct to 7.9%, and the target was achieved.
Investment advice
Considering the consolidation of Aoyou, the company’s net profit attributable to the parent for 22-23 years will be increased by 3.7% / 5.8%. It is expected that the growth rate of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent for 22-24 years will be 26% / 20% / 17% respectively, the corresponding EPS will be 1.72/2.06/2.40 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 23 / 19 / 16 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Raw milk prices rose more than expected, food safety problems, and industry competition intensified.
