\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Event description:
The company released the 2021 annual report that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 5.314 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.56%; The operating revenue was 19.971 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.75%. The net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter was 3.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.03%; The operating revenue was 10.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.62%.
Event comments
The performance is in line with expectations, accounting for nearly 60% outside the province. In 2021, the operating revenue reached 19.971 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.75%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.313 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.56%, close to the median value of the forecast. In 2022q1, the operating revenue reached 10.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.62%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 3.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.03%, which is in line with the previous express report, mainly due to the main increment contributed from January to February and the steady growth in March. 1) In terms of products, continue to optimize the product structure, and further increase the proportion of medium and high-end products in blue and white series. In 2021, the revenue of Fen Liquor / Series liquor / prepared liquor was 17.92/6.4/1.25 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 41.9% / 12.7% / 91.4%; 2) In terms of sub channels, the company deepened the market layout of Fen Liquor “1357 + 10” and steadily developed the large base market. The average sales growth in the southern market reached more than 60%. In 2021, the revenue inside / outside the province was 8.07/11.74 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 34.6% / + 49.5%, and the revenue outside the province accounted for + 2.6pct to 59.3% year-on-year.
Product structure optimization + deepening quality and efficiency improvement, and the profitability has been continuously improved. The company’s net profit margin increased by 26.99% year-on-year to 2206t / 202521%, respectively. Specifically: 1) the gross profit margin of 2021 / 2022q1 is 74.91% / 74.75%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.76/1.21pct; 2) In 2021, the company’s sales / management / financial expense ratio was 15.82% / 5.96% / – 0.17%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.45 / – 1.94 / + 0.32pct; 22q1 refers to sales / management / financial expenses, with a rate of 11.15% / 2.63% / – 0.07%, a year-on-year increase of -6.8 / – 0.62 / + 0.07pct; 3) The cash flow performance was beautiful. The company’s net cash flow from sales / operation in 2022q1 was RMB 8.87 billion / 3.54 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 71.9% / 1336.0%; 2021 / 2022q contract liabilities were RMB 7.38 billion / 3.88 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 137.4% / 32.4%.
Expand the original wine production and energy storage to escort the medium and long-term development. At present, the company’s original liquor production capacity is about 100000 tons (including the main plant + leasing Zhongfen liquor industry). With the continuous optimization and adjustment of the company’s product structure, the demand for high-quality production capacity is increasing. According to the medium and long-term development strategy of Fen Liquor and the 14th five year plan, the company plans to invest 9.102 billion yuan to build 51000 tons of original liquor production capacity and 134400 tons of original liquor storage energy. After the completion of the project, the production and storage capacity of Fen Liquor will be effectively improved. This expansion is not only the pursuit of scale, but also the overweight of quality, the support of brand and the upgrading of competitiveness. The improvement of the production and storage capacity of the company will also directly contribute to the high-quality development of Fen Liquor.
The blue and white series continues to develop, and the development in 2022 is still strong. From January to March 2022, the blue and white series increased significantly. Blue and white is the inevitable choice for the future development of Fen Liquor and is expected to continue to develop. At the 2021 dealer conference, three indicators were defined to measure the development of Qinghua Fenjiu: Qinghua sales volume index, Qinghua 20 terminal index and Qinghua Fenjiu opinion leader guidance index. Each area was assessed and dealers were guided to focus on Qinghua. The company plans to increase its revenue by about 25% year-on-year in 2022, with a conservative goal. In 2022, under the product strategy of “grasping blue and white, strengthening waist and stabilizing glass Fen”, more resources will be invested in blue and white series by reducing the quota of glass Fen. It is expected that the blue and white series will continue to grow at a high rate. Overall, low-end products are growing steadily, waist products are poised to grow, and high-end products are growing rapidly. The overall growth rate is still fast in 2022.
Profit forecast, valuation analysis and investment suggestions: 2022 will get off to a good start. In the medium and long term, the goal of high-end products + national channels of the company is clear, and the performance is highly deterministic. In the next two years, the operating revenue will be 30 billion yuan and 50 billion yuan in three to four years, with a compound annual growth rate of about 29%. With the optimization of product scale and management structure, the growth rate will be higher than the net profit in the future. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 5.318 billion, 7.462 billion and 10.088 billion, and the EPS will be 4.36 yuan, 6.12 yuan and 8.27 yuan respectively. Corresponding to the current stock price, PE will be 62 times, 44 times and 33 times respectively. Maintain the “Buy-A” rating.
Risk tip: the risk of epidemic exceeding the expectation, the expansion outside the province does not meet the expectation, and the macroeconomic risk.
