\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 078 Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) )
Revenue grew steadily, optimistic about the profit repair under the expectation of price increase, and maintained the “buy” rating
In 2022q1, the revenue was 9.667 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 26.48% (due to the continuous release of Guangxi Cultural paper / household paper production capacity), the net profit attributable to the parent was 675 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 39.08% (due to the pressure on profits caused by the rise of Dazhong raw materials), and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 658 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 39.22%). We maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.033/31.903334 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 1.13/1.19/1.24 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE of 10.5/10.0/9.6 times. We are optimistic about the profit repair under the expectation of price increase and maintain the “buy” rating.
The profit margin of cultural paper is repaired, and the rising cost suppresses the comprehensive gross profit
By product, cultural paper: the bidding season boosted the industry’s demand margin, improved the superimposed cost support (continued high pulp) / low inventory, and promoted the smooth implementation of the price increase letter (the cumulative price increase of double offset paper / coated paper from February to march was 550 / 300 yuan / ton). In addition, the supply of overseas cultural paper recovered and contracted due to the conversion of box board paper, and the supply-demand scissors gap pushed up the export of Chinese cultural paper (2022q1 export volume + 9% year-on-year), optimizing China’s supply pattern. The above factors lead to the profit recovery market of cultural paper in 2022q1, and the company’s profit per ton of cultural paper is expected to be about 300 yuan; Dissolved pulp: benefiting from the good recovery of downstream customers and cost promotion, the ex factory price has increased and remained at 7000 + yuan / ton since February, and the profit per ton of dissolved pulp is expected to be 600700 yuan; Carton board: Q1 is relatively off-season, and the profit is expected to be relatively stable. Based on the above, the overall gross profit margin was 14.0%, an increase of 4.1pct month on month compared with 2021q4, with a year-on-year increase of -9.4pct (2021 low cost base). The management rate was + 0.4pct to 2.5% year on year, which was due to the amortization of equity incentive cost and the increase of sewage treatment fee. The financial rate / sales rate is stable at 1.3% / 2.5%, and the period rate is 4.2% (- 0.4%). The R & D investment increased, the cost increased from + 1PCT to 1.9% year-on-year, and the net interest rate was 7.0% (- 7.6pct). Cash flow: the net cash flow from operating activities is 1.034 billion yuan (- 46.55%). Contract liabilities amounted to 666 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 79.21%.
The short-term multi factor disturbance cost pressure is still there, so we need to pay attention to the implementation of price increase
In the short term, the cost pressure remains: the pulp price continues to fluctuate in the high range due to the fermentation of many factors such as North American flood, European strike and Russia Ukraine war; There was a low base effect on energy costs in the first half of the year. Based on the cost pressure, major paper enterprises have recently issued letters of cultural paper price increase (200 yuan / ton). At present, the inventory of cultural paper mills is reasonable. Due to the impact of epidemic logistics, the channel inventory has increased slightly. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the implementation of price increase.
Risk tip: the price of pulp rose sharply, the terminal demand fell sharply, and the price rise was lower than expected
