\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 18 Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) )
Performance summary: the company achieved an operating revenue of 18.831 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 17.23%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was -42 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 125.59%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was -647 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 380.23%. In the first quarter of 2022, the company realized an operating revenue of 5.414 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.46%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 213 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 280.59%.
Affected by the rise in the price of raw and auxiliary materials of components, the net profit deducted in 2021 decreased significantly year-on-year. In 2021, the company's Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) component business realized an operating revenue of RMB 12.13 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 5.91%; Component shipments were 8.11gw, a year-on-year increase of 7.63%. Although the receivable and shipment of components have increased, the gross profit margin of components is only 1.71% due to the low delivery price of components, the sharp rise in the prices of raw and auxiliary materials such as silicon, silicon wafer, EVA adhesive film and aluminum frame, and the sharp rise in logistics costs. The company's sale of 52.49% equity of Swick generated an investment income of 1.004 billion yuan, and the remaining equity of Swick generated a profit of 223 million yuan measured at fair value. The 867mw power station was sold, and the equity transfer of the power station project company generated an investment income of 490 million yuan. In addition, the company has accrued 115 million yuan for impairment of fixed assets and inventory falling price losses, and 161 million yuan for non operating expenses including default expenses, extraordinary losses and fire losses.
The delivery price of 22q1 components increased, the silicon material contributed to the income, and the performance reversed. In the first quarter of 2022, the component delivery price of the company increased significantly: the component delivery price of the company in each quarter of 2021 was between 1.40 ~ 1.63 yuan / w (excluding tax), and increased to about 1.80 yuan / w (excluding tax) in January 2021. The concentrated silicon invested by the company has been put into large-scale mass production, and the silicon material price is at a high level in the first quarter, which is expected to make a great contribution to the company's performance.
Large scale production of heterogeneous battery lines. Relying on the shuangyili battery industrialization platform, the company successfully developed the goldensigma outdoor energy storage system cabinet, with a cumulative global shipment of 422mwh in 2021. In the North American market, it has successively completed the delivery of many large projects, such as California 47mwh peak shaving project, North Carolina 109mwh FM and auxiliary service project. By the first quarter of 2022, the cumulative contracted volume of projects in overseas markets had exceeded 1GWh. The company has many years of technology accumulation in the field of n-type hjt battery, has mastered the mass production technology of high-efficiency hjt battery with conversion efficiency up to 25.2%, and plans to invest in 5gwn ultra-low carbon high-efficiency heterojunction battery and 10GW high-efficiency Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) module project in Ninghai.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. In 2021, the company suffered a large loss after deducting non net profit due to the low delivery price of components, the rise in the price of raw and auxiliary materials and the rise in logistics costs. In the first quarter of 2022, with the increase of the average sales price of components, silicon material contributed to the performance, and the profit was significantly reversed. It has a good momentum of development in the field of energy storage business, and has put into large-scale production of hjt battery capacity. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 1112 million, RMB 1519 million and RMB 2043 million respectively, maintaining the "hold" rating.
Risk tip: the photovoltaic demand is less than expected, the production capacity launch progress lags behind, and there is a risk of component profit fluctuation.
