\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 132 Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) )
Performance review
The company released its first quarterly report on April 28. The sales volume of 22q1 beer was 794200 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of + 11.7%; The operating revenue was 3.833 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.12%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 341 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.33%, and the performance was in line with expectations.
Business analysis
Wusu has strong potential energy, and the epidemic situation in March has a phased impact. The volume of 22q1 increased by 11.7%, the price per ton increased by 4.6% year-on-year, and the revenue per ton increased by 4.9% year-on-year. It is expected that the effect of structural upgrading + early price increase will appear. From last year to February this year, the company has raised the price of Wusu, Lebao and Chongqing brands by 4-8%, which is expected to cover 1.1-1.2 million tons. 1) In terms of products, the overall growth rate of Wusu is 17% and that outside Xinjiang is 19% (it is estimated that the growth rate in Xinjiang may be about double digits); 1664 double digit growth; Both Lebao and Chongqing brands have increased. In terms of grades, the high / mainstream / economic income was 1.374/19.91/395 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 24.04% / + 13.17% / + 12.84%; The proportion of high-end products increased 2pct to 37%, and the product structure continued to upgrade. 2) In terms of subregions, the Northwest / central / southern region achieved an income of 1.196/16.61/904 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.96% / + 20.68% / + 14.13%. It is expected that the markets in southern regions such as Guangdong and Fujian will be disturbed by the epidemic. 22q1 added 296 dealers, decreased by 712, and decreased by 416, mainly due to the impact of account consolidation of the same dealer in different Bu and different channels after Bu adjustment, and the continuation of investment promotion under the promotion of big city plan.
The rise in freight charges raised the cost of tons, and the sales rate increased steadily and slightly. The cost of 22q1 tons is + 5.2% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin is - 0.2pct to 47.68% year-on-year. It is expected that it is mainly due to the increase of freight under the plan of big cities and the rise of crude oil prices, and the impact of other costs is relatively small. The sales rate of 22q1 increased from + 0.61pct to 13.71% year-on-year, which is expected to be the impact of Wujing endorsement and Tengger publicity invited by Wusu; The management rate is -0.79pct year-on-year, which is expected to be diluted due to the scale effect; The net interest rate rose from -0.96pct to 17.87% year-on-year. The income tax rate of 22q1 increased from 6.46pct to 26.2% year-on-year, which is mainly due to the one-time benefit brought by the deduction of subsidiary losses after the asset restructuring of 21q1. It is expected that the income tax rate in 22 years will be less than 25%, and the additional deduction is expected to be reflected in the third and fourth quarters.
The cost is relatively controllable. Pay attention to the recovery progress after the epidemic. We reiterate that the increase in the cost per ton of heavy beer will be better than that of its peers, due to the increase in the amortization of fixed costs, the low proportion of aluminum materials with a large increase (considering the canning rate and bottle return rate), and the optimization of the supply chain to save freight. The rise of oil price is not a sustainable factor, and the prices of barley and packaging materials have been locked. Raising prices again and controlling fees are reserved means (the sales rate is expected to be stable in 22 years). The company's current drinking has always accounted for a high proportion (normally 55%), the epidemic restricts catering, and the company has actively expanded new consumption scenarios (o2o and associations); Assuming that the follow-up epidemic prevention and control is appropriate, it is expected to usher in a rebound in demand (similar to 20 years). In the medium and long term, the company's product and brand marketing ability is leading, Wusu's life cycle continues, and the channel has been improved after Bu adjustment, waiting for Wusu's channel empowerment of other brands to appear.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that the revenue growth rate will be 17% / 15% / 13%, the profit growth rate will be 21% / 24% / 19%, the EPS will be 2.92/3.62/4.29 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 43 / 35 / 29x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The risk of repeated epidemic, the risk of intensified regional competition, the low expected rate of consumption upgrading, and food safety problems.
