\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 68 Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) )
Event: Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. The total revenue of 21 years was 20.642 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.96%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.956 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.47%. The total revenue of 22q1 was 6.312 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.15%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.72%.
The performance of Guojiao was stable, and the growth of medium-grade liquor was accelerated. 1) In 21 years, the revenue of medium and high-grade liquor / other liquor was 18.397/2.018 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 29.2% / - 8.7%. Medium and high-grade liquor accounted for 86.6% of liquor revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 7.5pct, and the sales volume / average price increased by 25.4% / 3.0% year-on-year. The volume increase was the main contribution. It is estimated that Guojiao 1573 continued to grow steadily, and the annual revenue accounted for about 65%, of which the revenue of low-grade products accounted for 30% and the sales volume accounted for 40%. Tequ and cellar age began to increase and speed up from the second half of 21 years. After the price increase, Tequ's sales trend gradually recovered. The sales volume / average price of other wines were - 51.82% / + 89.42% year-on-year. The sales volume of Erqu products decreased, and low-grade wines were still in the recovery stage. 2) The total revenue of 21q4 was 6.532 billion yuan, an increase of 29.26% year-on-year, with a month on month increase (the revenue of 21q2 / Q3 increased by 5.67% year-on-year / 20.89%).
22q1 revenue continued to grow steadily. The feedback in the spring peak season of 22 years is good. It is estimated that Guojiao 1573 has maintained a stable growth, the volume of low-grade 1573 is more obvious in North China and other regions, and the development trend of Tequ and cellar age is good. In terms of subregions, the southwest market has developed steadily, with good feedback from Guojiao 1573 and Tequ version 60. The expansion area has an obvious increase in the East China market. The Henan market was disturbed by the epidemic situation in the early spring festival, and the superimposed competition is relatively fierce. It is estimated that the growth is relatively stable. At present, some regions have reported that the payment collection task of Guojiao has been completed by about 45%. The payment price has increased in March, with a high 1573 lot price of about 920 yuan. The dealer's inventory is within one month, and the dynamic sales remain benign.
The increase in the proportion of medium and high-grade products and the refinement of expenses have promoted the improvement of profitability. 1) The gross profit margin of 21 years / 22q1 was 85.7% / 86.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.65/0.39pct, mainly due to the structural optimization driven by the increase in the proportion of medium and high-grade alcohol. The sales expense ratio was 17.4% / 10.7%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.12/2.82pct. The cost investment efficiency under fine management was improved, and the management and R & D expense ratio was 5.8% / 4.8%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.19/0.61pct. There was a certain amortization of equity incentive expenses in 22q1. The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 38.54% / 45.56%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.48/2.26pct, and the profitability continued to rise. 2) In the 21st year / 22q1, the sales cash collection was RMB 22.547/7.498 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 31.2% / 16.3%. The net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 7.699/1.131 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 56.6% / - 13.6%. The growth of 22q1 sales collection slowed down, and the cash flow was still healthy. As of the end of Q1 in 22, contract liabilities and other current liabilities were about 1.992 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.974 billion yuan compared with the end of 21. It is estimated that it is mainly due to the decrease of advance payment in Q2 off-season.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the company has made a brilliant start in 22 years. The dual brand operation and nationalization have been continuously promoted, with both certainty and growth. Under the release of brand potential energy, the profit elasticity continues to be realized. Maintain the net profit forecast of 9.784/11.814 billion yuan in 202223, and increase the net profit forecast of 14.14 billion yuan in 24 years, equivalent to EPS of 6.65/8.03/9.61 yuan. The corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 32 / 27 / 22 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation affects the dynamic sales, the competition of high-end Baijiu intensifies, and the cost effect is less than expected.
