\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 012 Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) )
Performance summary: the company achieved an operating revenue of 80.932 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 48.27%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.086 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.24%. In the first quarter of 2022, the company realized an operating revenue of 18.595 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.29%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.664 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.46%.
In the 21st year, the shipment volume kept growing, and the shortage of raw materials and other factors affected the release of profits. In 2021, the company’s shipment volume maintained rapid growth, realizing the shipment volume of monocrystalline silicon wafer of 70.01gw (33.92gw for export), and the shipment volume of single crystal components of 38.52gw (37.24gw for export), with a year-on-year increase of 55.45%. The market share of components increased steadily Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery and module business achieved an operating revenue of 58.454 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.30%; The gross profit margin was 17.06%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.47pp. The silicon wafer and silicon rod business realized an operating revenue of 17.028 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.77%, and the gross profit margin was 27.55%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.81pp. Affected by the sharp rise in the price of silicon and the increase in the performance cost of photovoltaic products, the company’s gross profit margin declined. In 2021, the company accrued asset impairment loss of 1.241 billion yuan (including fixed asset impairment of 873 million yuan), and recognized exchange gain or loss of 832 million yuan, which affected the release of profits in 2021.
Affected by wro in the United States, component shipments were low in the first quarter. In the first quarter of 2022, the company shipped 18.36gw of monocrystalline silicon wafer (8.42gw for export); The shipment of single crystal components is 6.44gw (6.35gw for export). Affected by multiple factors such as the wro incident in the United States and overseas epidemic control, the shipment of components was lower than expected. The gross profit margin of silicon rod and silicon wafer was 23.24%, and that of battery and module was 19.27%. The gross profit margin of module recovered. The company recognized 657 million yuan of investment income from associated enterprises and joint ventures, most of which were investment income from participating in Sichuan Yongxiang and Yunnan Tongwei. The company’s performance in the first quarter was in line with expectations as a whole. By the end of 2022q1, the company’s inventory was 21.572 billion yuan, an increase of 7.474 billion yuan over the end of 2021. Contract liabilities are 9.031 billion yuan, and orders have a strong ability to cover inventory.
Continue to increase R & D investment, and mass production of new technology batteries is imminent. In 2021, the company continued to increase R & D investment, with an annual R & D investment of 4.394 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.55%. In 2021, the non silicon cost of the whole process of silicon wafer will decrease by 7% compared with that in 2020. In 2022, the company’s production capacity will be further expanded. It is expected that the production capacity of silicon wafer, battery and module will reach 150gw, 60GW and 85gw respectively by the end of the year. While consolidating the scale advantage of silicon wafer production capacity, the company will improve the integrated layout. In 2022, the company plans to ship 90gw ~ 100gw of monocrystalline silicon wafer (including self use) and 50 ~ 60GW of components (including self use). The company accelerates the industrial application and capacity construction of new battery technology and is expected to start production in the third quarter of 2022.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. The company has sufficient orders in hand, the shipment of Q2 components is expected to resume, and the mass production of new battery technology is imminent. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 14.028 billion yuan, 17.200 billion yuan and 21.279 billion yuan respectively, with a valuation of 30 times in 2022 and a target price of 77.70 yuan, which will be raised to the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: US policy sanctions risk, patent infringement risk, new technology production is less than expected, and raw material price fluctuation risk.
