\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 304 Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) )
Performance review
The company announced on April 28 that it had achieved a revenue of 25.35 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of + 20.14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.508 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.34%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 7.373 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 30.44%. 21q4 revenue was 3.408 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 55.80%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 295 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 0.46%; Deduction of non net profit was 523 million yuan year-on-year, with a year-on-year increase of + 2860%. 22q1 revenue was 13.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.82%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.985 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 29.07%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 4.898 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 28.53%.
Business analysis
21 years exceeded expectations, and meng6 + entered an accelerated volume period. In 21 years, the sales volume of Baijiu was 184000 tons, a year-on-year increase of +18.1%; Ton price + 2.7% year-on-year. In terms of products, the medium and high-grade (blue classic + Su wine + zhenbaofang, etc.) / ordinary income (Yanghe Daqu + Shuanggou Daqu, etc.) was 21.5213118 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21.95% / + 16.05%. We expect that the sea and sky are growing in double digits, the growth rate of meng6 + is about 50%, and the volume has exceeded meng3; Dream 3 accounts for more than 40% of blue classics. Growth dream 6 + dream 9& manual class dream 3. Crystal dream has basically replaced the old version. The growth rate of Shuanggou from January to September is nearly 40%, and the volume of expensive wine is in single digits, with a growth rate of more than 300% in 21 years. In terms of subregions, the income within / outside the province was RMB 11.556/13.083 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 20.87% / + 21.43%, and the income within the province accounted for 47%. The net decrease of 909 dealers in the past 21 years was mainly due to the focus on strategic leading product building and the continuous optimization of dealer structure and layout.
Salary increase and employee treatment increase, and the provision for trust impairment is completed. The gross profit margin in the 21st year is + 3.1pct year-on-year, which is expected to be the upgrading of product structure; The sales rate is + 1.6pct year-on-year, including advertising promotion and employee salary rate of + 0.9 / + 1.1pct year-on-year, brand image cultivation and employee treatment improvement; The management rate is -1.0pct year-on-year. Although the equity incentive is newly added, the scale effect is amortized, deducting the non net interest rate + 2.3pct year-on-year. In Q4, 251 million yuan of trust impairment has been accrued, Q1 will not be accrued, and more than 100 million losses will be recognized in 22h1. It is expected that the early accrual can be covered.
21q4 the Spring Festival is ahead of schedule, with payment and goods preparation in advance. Year on year sales cash receipts of 21q4 + 79%, 22q1 - 15%, Q4 + Q1 + 28%. 21q4 gross profit margin was + 13.7pct year-on-year, and the proportion of taxes and surcharges was -11.8pct year-on-year, which was a mismatch of tax payment rhythm; The sales rate is + 19.4pct year-on-year, or the promotion fee confirmed in advance during the Spring Festival + bonus paid at the end of the year, and the non net interest rate is deducted + 25.5pct year-on-year.
With the tide of returning home during the Spring Festival in Jiangsu, Q1 continues to make rapid progress. According to channel feedback, the payment progress of Q1 is more than 5pct faster than that in previous years, and the contract liabilities of Q1 are + 59% year-on-year. We expect that the growth rate of Q1 dream 6 + may be more than 50%. Crystal dream improves, the new and old of sky blue alternate, and the performance of sea blue is good. Q1 gross profit margin / proportion of taxes and surcharges / sales / management rate + 1.1 / + 0.3 / + 0.3 / - 0.6pct year on year, net profit margin + 1.5pct year on year.
The internal and external links are better, and the valuation cost performance is higher. Jiangsu's economic alpha is strong, Q2 is off-season, and the damage is limited. Recently, the epidemic situation in East China has improved marginally, and the Q2 payment collection has been gradually opened (accounting for 20%), waiting for the demand of the Dragon Boat Festival to recover. Haizhilan stopped the goods on April 1, and the upgrade is imminent; 22 year dream 6 + large volume in the province, stronger surrounding advantageous markets, and good consumption cultivation in remote areas. In the medium and long term, the company's internal mechanism reform continues, which is reflected in: 1) the adjustment of sales directors in strategic markets such as Anhui and Zhejiang, and the use of young backbone; 2) The original more than 30 regions have been transformed into 62 business departments, promoting new people, streamlining levels and delegating power; 3) The salary increase of front-line personnel, employee stock ownership plan and other incentive measures were promoted.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that the revenue growth rate will be 23% / 21% / 18%, the profit growth rate will be 28% / 25 / 21%, the EPS will be 6.35/7.95/9.60 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 23 / 18 / 15x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Repeated epidemic risks, intensified regional competition, lower than expected expansion of dream 6 + and food safety problems.
