\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 304 Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) )
The annual net profit of the parent company was 25.3y billion yuan (2.073 billion yuan) and the annual net profit of the non parent company was 25.3y + 3 billion yuan (2.073 billion yuan + 3.073 billion yuan) and the annual net profit of the non parent company was successfully released. 22q1’s revenue was 13.026 billion yuan (YoY + 23.8%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.985 billion yuan (YoY + 29.1%), which made a good start and achieved a high growth rate.
The structure of Baijiu has been upgraded, the volume and price have risen simultaneously, and the contract liabilities have increased dramatically. In the year of 21, the revenue of Baijiu was 24.44 billion yuan (yoy+21.3%), and the sales volume and ton price changed by 18.1% and 2.7% respectively. It is expected that the upward trend of ton price will mainly benefit from the higher growth rate of high-priced products such as meng6+ and the increase in the proportion. At the same time, products such as tianzhilan will be upgraded. In terms of splitting, the revenue of medium and high-grade liquor in the past 21 years was 21.52 billion yuan (YoY + 21.9%), accounting for an increase of 0.6pct to 87.3%, and the revenue of 21h2 was 8.97 billion yuan (YoY + 30.5%), accelerating growth in the second half of the year. In the 21st year, the revenue of alcohol inside and outside the province reached 11.56 billion yuan (YoY + 20.9%) and 13.08 billion yuan (YoY + 21.4%) respectively, accounting for 53.1% (YoY + 0.1pct) outside the province. At the end of the year, the number of dealers was 8142, with a year-on-year decrease of 909. We continued to adjust the in-depth distribution mode and support high-quality big businesses. At the end of 22q1, the balance of contract liabilities of the company was 9.77 billion yuan (YoY + 59.3%), which is expected to support the subsequent performance growth.
Gross profit margin increased steadily and profitability improved. Benefiting from product upgrading and price increase, the gross profit margin in 21 years and 22q1 reached 75.32% (YoY + 3.06pct) and 77.30% (YoY + 1.14pct) respectively. After deducting the impact of profit and loss from changes in fair value, the net interest rate deducted by the company from non parent company in 21 years reached 29.08% (YoY + 2.30pct). 22q1 sales expense ratio is 6.59% (YoY + 0.29pct), management expense ratio is 4.05% (yoy-0.62pct), and taxes and surcharges account for 16.80% (YoY + 0.31pct); Overall, the net profit margin of 22q1 sales was 38.29% (YoY + 1.53pct), and the profitability was improved.
The reform has gradually entered the harvest period, and the business objectives are expected to be successfully completed. In recent years, the company has made positive changes. In terms of governance, the 21-year employee stock ownership plan has been successfully launched, which is conducive to improving business vitality; In terms of products, we have promoted the upgrading of the new version of sky blue in the past 21 years, and the upgrading of sea blue is in steady progress, promoting the increase of rating; In terms of channels, support high-quality big businesses, develop group purchase business and effectively improve channel profits. The company’s reform has gradually entered the harvest period. With the further upward movement of the mainstream price belt inside and outside the province, meng6 + and other products are expected to enter the fast lane of growth and further improve profitability. The business goal of the company in the past 22 years is to achieve a year-on-year increase in operating revenue of more than 15%, which is expected to be realized smoothly. On the margin, the company implements the special marketing action of “70 days of hard work · summer storm”, which is expected to accelerate the completion of the tasks of the whole year.
Raise the revenue and gross profit margin, and predict the earnings per share of 22-24 years to be 6.46 yuan, 7.87 yuan and 9.08 yuan respectively (the original forecast of 22-23 years is 6.36 yuan and 7.71 yuan). In combination with comparable companies, give 27 times PE in 22 years, target price 174.42 yuan, and maintain the buy rating.
Risk tips: the development progress outside the province is slow, the consumption demand is less than expected, and the risk of food safety events.
