\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 258 Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) )
Key investment points
Opening: a net increase of 77 hotels, with continuous efforts in medium and high-end and light management
As of 2201, the company had 5993 hotels in total, and the number of gross / net stores in the quarter was 190 / 77. Among them, the number of franchised hotels was 5249, accounting for 87.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3pct, and the number of franchised rooms accounted for 81.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% lpct； The number of medium and high-end / economical / light management rooms accounted for 32.6% / 44.3% / 17.5% respectively, accounting for + 2.4pct / - 9.2pct / + 7.1pct year-on-year. Among the 77 net stores opened, the number of medium and high-end / light management increased by 42 / 74, and the number of economical stores decreased by 32.
Business data: affected by the escalation of epidemic prevention and control, RevPAR decreased by 8.8% year-on-year
In 22q1, the company's overall RevPAR was 86 yuan / - 8.8%, recovered to 62% of 19q1, adr174 yuan / + 3.0%, and OCC 49.0% 2%/-6.3pct。 Among them, the economic / medium and high-end / light management RevPAR were - 5.8% / - 9.7% / - 17.3% year-on-year respectively. From January to February, affected by macroeconomic, industrial policies and the recovery of consumption during the Spring Festival holiday, the tourism market of new year's day and Spring Festival recovered slowly, and the RevPAR of the company increased slightly year-on-year; Since late February, due to the outbreak in large cities such as Shenzhen and Shanghai, the national epidemic prevention and control measures have been comprehensively upgraded, and the travel has been significantly cooled. In March, RevPAR decreased year-on-year, resulting in a year-on-year decrease of 8.8% in q1rvpar. Among them, the company's house price data was relatively stable, with a year-on-year increase of 3%, and the occupancy rate decreased by 6.3pct due to the decline of travel intention.
Financial data: the revenue recovered to 62.4% of 19q1, and the loss expanded due to the epidemic
The company achieved a revenue of 1.21 billion yuan / - 4.6%, which recovered to 62.4% of that of 19q1, of which the revenue of hotel business was 1.11 billion yuan / - 4%, which recovered to 62.6% in the same period of 2019, and the revenue of scenic spot operation business was 100 million yuan / - 11.1%, which recovered to 61.5% in the same period of 19. Net profit attributable to parent company and non net profit deducted were - 230 million yuan and - 260 million yuan respectively.
22q1, the company's gross profit margin was 5.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5pct; During the period, the expense rate was 30.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8pct, and the sales expense rate / management expense rate / financial expense rate were 4.7% / 15.2% / 9.3% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -0.9pct / + 1.9pct / - 0.8pct respectively. The company replaced the high interest rate loan in the early stage through low interest rate ultra short financing, which reduced the company's financial cost.
Future outlook: store expansion continues to accelerate, and the liquor management company injects expectations to provide performance flexibility for the company's post epidemic recovery
In 2022, the company plans to open 18002000 stores, significantly faster than the 14001600 stores planned in 2021. As of 22q1, the company has 1827 stores in reserve, providing strong support for expansion. At the same time, the company has set an increase of 3 billion yuan, which has also provided a strong guarantee for expansion. In the short term, the company's operation is suppressed by the epidemic, but the company actively cultivates its internal skills and speeds up the expansion of stores. Once the industry recovers, the performance flexibility can be expected. In addition, the parent company, Beijing ShouLv group, has promised to inject the operation and management rights of some qualified hotel assets into listed companies by the end of 2022, including Nuojin hotel management company (including the operation of Universal Studios Hotel), which is actively promoting and is expected to provide incremental profits for the company.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be -0.08, 0.79 and 1.23 yuan respectively. Considering that the company had a fixed increase of 3 billion yuan at the end of last year, 1 / 3 of which was participated by major shareholders, and the fixed increase price was 22.33 yuan, the current stock price has strong support. In the medium term, the company is determined to expand its stores, is expected to usher in greater flexibility in the recovery period of the industry, actively promote the asset integration of major shareholders and maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the industry demand is lower than expected, and the exhibition speed is lower than expected.
