\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 938 Tangshan Sunfar Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603938) )
Core view
The performance in the first quarter of 2022 was in line with expectations and reached a single quarter high. In the first quarter of 2022, the revenue was 530 million yuan (year-on-year + 85.1%, month on month + 14.2%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 150 million yuan (year-on-year + 183.8%, month on month + 69.4%). The single quarter performance was the highest in history, mainly benefiting from the high prosperity of trichlorosilane and silicon tetrachloride industries, and the performance was in line with expectations. In the first quarter of 2022, the gross profit margin of the company was 41.1% (YoY + 11.6pp, mom + 9.1pp), the third rate was 3.5% (YoY -2.8pp, mom -1.6pp), and the net profit margin was 28.1% (YoY + 10.3pp, mom + 8.9pp).
Trichlorosilane and silicon tetrachloride are booming, the cost of potassium series products increases, and the profit is under pressure. The company's main products are "two silicon and two potassium". The main products of silicon series are trichlorosilane and silicon tetrachloride. In the first quarter, the sales amount is 302 million yuan (year-on-year + 184.9%, month on month + 41.2%), the output is 22800 tons (year-on-year + 19.9%, month on month + 34.0%), the sales volume is 20300 tons (year-on-year + 6.1%, month on month + 64.0%), and the average sales price is 14892 yuan / ton (year-on-year + 168.6%, month on month - 3.3%), We expect the average tax inclusive purchase price of raw material metal silicon powder to be about 23000 yuan / ton (year-on-year + 62.6%, month on month - 35.7%). According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the price difference of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilane in the first quarter of 2022 was about 14850 yuan / ton, an increase of about 1350 yuan / ton month on month. The main products of potassium series are potassium hydroxide and potassium sulfate. Due to the sharp rise in the price of raw material potassium chloride (year-on-year + 128.3%, month on month + 25.0%), the profitability is expected to narrow. The sales amount of potassium series products in the first quarter was 186 million yuan (year-on-year + 13.3%, month on month - 0.5%), the output was 29600 tons (year-on-year - 26.8%, month on month - 24.5%), and the sales volume was 29500 tons (year-on-year - 16.6%, month on month - 12.7%), The average sales price is 6296 yuan / ton (year-on-year + 35.8%, month on month + 14.0%).
A large number of polysilicon production capacity was released, driving the price of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilane to rise sharply. With the gradual release and climbing of new polysilicon production capacity, the demand for trichlorosilane has increased. The photovoltaic grade trichlorosilane has increased from 18000 yuan / ton to 26500 yuan / ton since March. This week, the photovoltaic grade market price continues to increase by about 1000 yuan / ton to 26500 yuan / ton, with the quotation of 250 Xinjiang Haoyuan Natural Gas Co.Ltd(002700) 0 yuan / ton. According to the quotation of individual enterprises of Baichuan Yingfu, the pre tax gross profit of the manufacturer is about 1 Rizhao Port Co.Ltd(600017) 000 yuan / ton. According to the statistics of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, the new production capacity of polycrystalline silicon in China in 2022 / 2023 was 500000 / 450000 tons respectively, and the new demand for photovoltaic grade trichlorosilane was 100000 / 90000 tons. In 2021, the output of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilane sold abroad was about 200000 tons, and the current capacity under construction was about 120000 tons. However, the effective output is expected to be only 1 Shenzhen Zhongheng Huafa Co.Ltd(000020) 000 tons this year. The supply and demand of trichlorosilane is still in tight balance or even in short supply this year and next, and the industry is expected to maintain a high outlook.
Prompt: downstream polysilicon demand is lower than expected; Product prices fell more than expected.
Investment advice: maintain the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating.
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 750 / 9.3 / 1.01 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 122 / 25 / 8%; Diluted EPS = 3.82/4.77/5.17 yuan, and the current share price corresponds to PE = 11 / 9 / 8x. The company fully benefited from the high boom of trichlorosilane and silicon tetrachloride industries and maintained the "buy" rating.
