\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 012 Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) )
Event: the company announced the results of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 80.932 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 48.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.086 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.2%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 8.826 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 8.4%. 21q4 achieved a revenue of 24.726 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19.2% and a month on month increase of + 17.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.53 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 30.3% and a month on month increase of – 40.3%. 22q1 achieved a revenue of 18.595 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.3% and a month on month decrease of – 24.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.664 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.5% and a month on month increase of + 74.1%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 2.647 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 9.4%. The performance in 2021 is slightly lower than the market expectation.
The component business is growing rapidly. During the reporting period, the operation of the company was faced with multiple challenges, such as the short-term of raw materials, poor logistics and soaring prices, the wro (customs according to the temporary detention order) incident in the United States and overseas epidemic control. The gross profit margin of the company’s silicon components and silicon components business decreased by 17.01% to 1.7% and . The shortage of silicon material supply led to a serious shortage of silicon wafer operating rate. The production and sales volume of monocrystalline silicon wafer in 2021 was 70gw / 33.9gw, a year-on-year increase of + 18.8% / + 6.6%; The production and sales volume of components was 38.9gw/37.2gw, a year-on-year increase of + 46.4% / + 55.5%.
Sufficient orders are in hand to strengthen global coordination. The shipment volume of silicon wafer of 22q1 company is 18.36gw, including 8.42gw for external sales, and the gross profit margin of silicon rod and silicon wafer is 23.24%; The shipment volume of components is 6.44gw, including 6.35gw for external sales, and the gross profit margin of batteries and components is 19.27%. It is expected that the sales volume will increase quarter by quarter in the next three quarters. According to the company’s guidelines, it is estimated that 90-100gw of monocrystalline silicon wafers (including self use) and 50-60gw of components (including self use) will be shipped in 2022; It is planned to realize an operating revenue of more than 100 billion yuan in 2022.
Asset impairment has a great impact on profits. In order to keep the quality of equipment and facilities assets at the leading level in the industry, the company made a large impairment of 1.24 billion yuan in 2021, including 870 million impairment of fixed assets, mainly including M6 battery production line equipment and component equipment. Benefiting from price transmission, it is estimated that the company’s average single watt profit of silicon wafer in 2021 is more than 0.13 yuan, and 22q1 is higher than 21q4 month on month. 22q1 profitability improved significantly month on month. The company’s net profit margin of 22q1 sales reached 14.27%, with a month on month increase of 8.1pct, roe of about 5.4%, and a month on month increase of 2.2pct.
Led by the battery technology industry, diversified layout of carbon neutralization and related industries. During the reporting period, the conversion efficiency of n-type TOPCON battery, hjt battery and p-type TOPCON battery announced by the company continuously refreshed the industry record. The company’s original HPBC battery has both technical and cost advantages, and may focus on the distributed market in the future. The company and Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) jointly explore the BIPV market. The company focuses on product R & D, production and sales, and Suntech is responsible for project undertaking, implementation and delivery. In 2021, the company established Xi’an Longji Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. to become the world’s leading provider of large-scale green hydrogen equipment and solutions. The first 1000nm3 / h alkaline water electrolyzer has been successfully offline. At present, it has the ability to obtain orders and 500MW production and delivery capacity.
Investment suggestion: as a global leader in silicon wafer components, it has obvious scale advantages, leading supply chain layout, leading technology industry and forward-looking strategic layout. It is estimated that from 2022 to 2023, the operating revenue will be 109768 billion yuan / 142886 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 14.385 billion yuan / 17.913 billion yuan, the EPS will be 2.66 yuan / 3.31 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 23.1 times / 18.5 times, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the impact of covid-19 epidemic on the industry exceeded expectations; Risks brought by changes in global industrial policies; The production capacity is lower than expected; International trade friction risk; Exchange rate fluctuation risk, etc.
