\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 68 Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) )
Event: the company disclosed the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 20.64 billion yuan, 24.0% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.96 billion yuan, 32.5% year-on-year, with a growth rate slightly higher than the performance forecast guidelines. In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 6.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.7%.
The national cellar has launched a new 10 billion yuan, and the nationalization of special music is in progress. From the perspective of product structure, the company's medium and high-grade liquor / other liquor revenue in 2021 was 18.4 billion yuan / 2.02 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 29.2 / - 8.7%. The proportion of medium and high-grade liquor in the company's revenue further increased to 89.1%, and its China cellar and Tequ contributed to the main revenue increment. In 2021, the volume of the company's low-grade national cellars in East and North China was obvious, and the market share increased rapidly in the price belt of Tian Jin Bohai Chemical Co.Ltd(600800) yuan; The market share of Guojiao has increased steadily, and the price has increased steadily, leading the Guojiao brand to move towards a new 10 billion. In addition, after phased adjustment, Tequ also achieved a high growth rate in the second half of 2021, and the process of nationalization was accelerated. At the beginning of the new year in 2022, changes in the macro environment and repeated epidemics have had a certain impact on the Baijiu industry. Under this background, the company still maintained a rapid growth rate and successfully made a good start.
Continuous optimization of product structure and further improvement of profitability. In terms of gross profit margin, the company's gross profit margin in 2021 / 2022q1 was 85.7/86.4% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.7/0.4pct, mainly due to the rising proportion of Guojiao and Tequ in the company's revenue, driving the continuous improvement of profitability. In terms of expense ratio, the company's 2021 / 2022q1 sales expense ratio was 17.4 / 10.7% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -1.1pcts; The management expense ratio was 5.1/4.4% respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of 0.0 / - 1.2pcts.
With many advantages, the company can be expected in the future. On the product side, the company firmly focuses on "double brands, three lines and large single products", and the brand matrix is becoming more and more perfect. In terms of production capacity, the first phase of the company's technological transformation project with an investment of 7.4 billion yuan at the end of 2016 has been put into operation in 2020, and the second phase is planned to be completed at the end of the 14th five year plan. At that time, the cumulative new base liquor production capacity will reach 100000 tons and the new liquor storage capacity will reach 380000 tons. Sufficient production capacity will support the long-term development of the company; On the channel side, the company focuses on deep cultivation of channels in mature markets such as southwest and North China, and the consumption potential is strengthened day by day. After years of cultivation in markets such as East China, central China and South China, the awareness of consumers is continuously improved. In addition, in terms of incentives to employees, in December 2021, the company officially granted 6.9286 million restricted shares to 441 executives and business backbones, further improving the enthusiasm of employees within the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: we are optimistic about the main products Guojiao and Tequ to maintain a high growth rate. According to the latest annual report data, we slightly adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 to 10.2/12.53 billion yuan (the original forecast was 10.3/12.45 billion yuan), and introduced the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 to 14.88 billion yuan. At present, the corresponding PE of the stock price is 31 / 25 / 21 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the economy fluctuates greatly, the industry competition intensifies, and the epidemic affects the terminal dynamic sales.
