\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 029 China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) )
Revenue side: under the influence of the epidemic, the loss further increased, and the operating net cash flow became positive year-on-year.
1) in 2022q1, the company achieved revenue of 21.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.03%, returning to 57% in 2019; The net profit attributable to the parent company was -4.496 billion yuan, with an increased loss compared with the same period last year (21q1 loss of 4.006 billion yuan).
The exchange gain and loss on the same period last year is expected to be RMB 34.29 billion (about RMB 3.19 billion against the central exchange rate on the same period last year)
3) confirmation of operating cash flow: Q1 net operating cash flow was 17 million, compared with – 51 million in the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in cash brought by freight transportation
4) solvency: the Q1 asset liability ratio was 75%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.43pct; The current ratio and quick ratio were 0.4 and 0.38 respectively, up 0.23 and 0.23 respectively compared with the same period last year.
Business data: the epidemic situation in March has a great impact on supply and demand, and freight transportation is expected to contribute considerable income.
1) fleet size: by the end of March 2022, the company had operated a total of 879 transport aircraft, with a net increase of 1, 5 Airbus 320, and 2 Airbus 380 and 2 Boeing 747.
2) passenger transport: the passenger seat rate has declined, and the unit RPK has increased under the ticket price elasticity. 22q1ask decreased by 10% year-on-year, and China / international / region decreased by 8.9%, 31.2% and 33.7% respectively; 22q1rpk decreased by 15.1% year-on-year, and China / international / region decreased by 15.1%, 14.0% and 30.9% respectively. Ticket price elasticity is reflected. The unit RPK income is 0.74 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%. 22q1 seat rate fell by 3.99pct year-on-year, and China / international / region were -4.81pct, + 10.75pct, + 1.33pct respectively.
3) freight: the freight data decreased slightly, and the contribution income is expected to be considerable. 22q1 freight and mail volume decreased by 5% year-on-year, and China / international / region decreased by 0.28%, 9.38% and 19.13% respectively. 22q1atk fell 9.79% year-on-year, and China / international / region fell 10.45%, 8.34% and 30.8% respectively. The overall carrying rate of 22q1 decreased by 2.32pct, of which the cargo and mail carrying rate increased by 0.35pct year-on-year, mainly driven by China and regions. By the end of 2021, the number of cargo planes and the scale of freight revenue of the company were higher than those of China Eastern Airlines. Considering that the net profit of Eastern Air Logistics Co.Ltd(601156) q1 deduction increased by 96% year-on-year, it is expected that the freight business of the company will also contribute considerable profits.
Cost: the unit ask cost increases under the influence of oil price and seating rate, and the cost rate is well controlled.
1) gross profit margin: in Q1, the passenger occupancy rate declined, and the oil price remained high (the average oil price in Q1 was 5462 yuan, up 55% year-on-year). The gross profit margin continued to deteriorate, and the gross profit margin in 22q1 was – 16%, down 6pct year-on-year. The unit ask cost was 0.56 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%.
2) expense rate: Q1 sales expense rate, management expense rate and financial expense rate were 4.87%, 3.54% and 5.43% respectively, with a decrease of 0.45pct, 0.06pct and 1.77pct respectively.
\u3000\u3000? Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Under the influence of the epidemic, the supply of the industry slows down, and the prelude to integration may be opened. The head airlines are the stronger and the stronger. The recovery of the epidemic will be more reflected in the elasticity of ticket prices, and the industry will reverse its plight. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be – 8.6 billion yuan, 4.5 billion yuan and 11 billion yuan respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The recovery of the epidemic was less than expected, the oil price rose more than expected, and the RMB exchange rate depreciated significantly.
