\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 493 Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) )
The performance has increased steadily, and the impact of high oil prices is limited. In 2021, the operating revenue reached 177024 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 65.03%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 12.824 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 75.46%. In the first quarter of 2022, the operating revenue was 68.601 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 98.38%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 3.116 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 18.85%. The company's performance is basically in line with our expectations. The overall performance of the company is excellent in 2021. Under the influence of high oil prices, the performance growth may be restrained to some extent in 2022, but the impact is limited.
Zhejiang Petrochemical has driven the rapid growth of performance, and the phase II project has gradually increased in volume. The increment of the company in 2021 mainly comes from the performance improvement of its subsidiary Zhejiang Petrochemical in the chemical business cycle. Zhejiang Petrochemical achieved an operating revenue of 117.5 billion in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 81%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 22.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 99%. At the beginning of the year, the company issued the announcement that Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II was fully put into operation. Phase II oil refining, aromatics, ethylene and downstream chemical products units have been fully put into commissioning. Zhejiang Petrochemical has increased the production capacity of 20 million tons / year of oil refining, 6.6 million tons / year of aromatics and 1.4 million tons / year of ethylene, and the yield, richness and added value of chemical products have been further improved. It is estimated that Zhejiang Petrochemical will realize a net profit of about 5 billion in the first quarter of 2022, and the operation of phase II will drive the performance to continue to rise.
The polyester industry chain performs poorly in the short term, but it is expected to be repaired in the medium and long term. In 2021, the changes of the company's polyester industry chain were different. The profits of PX and downstream polyester increased, but PTA profits fell seriously. In the first quarter of 2022, affected by the Russian Ukrainian war, the crude oil price rose broadly in a short time, reducing the profits of the polyester industry chain. In particular, the polyester end was seriously damaged when the upstream cost rose and the downstream demand was restrained by the epidemic. We believe that the pressure of high oil prices is gradually easing. In the short term, the profitability of polyester filament has been damaged due to the epidemic. However, in the medium and long term, the trend of global economic recovery is clear, and the downstream demand will recover in an orderly manner.
EVA market continues to pick up. Since March, China's EVA market has continued to pick up. According to Baichuan Yingfu, the current price of photovoltaic materials has reached 30000 yuan / ton. Considering the optimistic demand for new installed capacity of photovoltaic, the tension between supply and demand of high-end photovoltaic materials has further intensified. We believe that within two years, the EVA industry is still in a high business cycle, China's new capacity is difficult to meet the rapid growth on the demand side, and the supply of high-end photovoltaic materials is in short supply. We have also seen that the price of EVA has risen more than expected since this year. Considering that China's main new production capacity has been put into operation this year and the demand of photovoltaic industry continues to increase significantly, we are optimistic that the price of EVA will continue to rise in the future.
Risk warning: the price of crude oil at the cost side rises; The price of the company's products fell due to the epidemic; The progress of the project under construction does not meet the expectations, etc.
Investment suggestion: due to the large increase in oil price, we lowered the profit forecast accordingly. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 15.5/191/22.3 billion yuan (the net profit forecast of 22 / 23 years was 19.1/23.4 billion yuan), diluted EPS = 1.53/1.89/2.20 yuan, corresponding PE = 9 / 7 / 6x, and maintained the "buy" rating.
