\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 225 Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) )
Performance review
Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) 2022 released the first quarterly report of 2022 on April 29, 2022. In 2022q1, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 285 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.75% and a month on month decrease of 10.94%.
Business analysis
Polyester filament under short-term pressure, leading enterprises boom low point, excess return verification. Since 2021q4, due to the continuous rise of bulk energy prices such as upstream core raw materials crude oil and coal, the sales price increase of downstream products is lower than that of upstream, and the price difference between links continues to be under pressure. The industrial loss state of px-pta and PTA filament links has occurred repeatedly, and the comprehensive prosperity of products is in the 22% quantile. In Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) q1 in 2022, when the prosperity of the industry continues to decline and is close to the bottom, the profit in the single quarter is still 285 million yuan, Verification of excess returns of leading enterprises at boom lows. At the same time, the production and sales rate of the company is slightly lower than that of q2-q4, which is affected by the Spring Festival.
The construction of production capacity continues to be promoted and the company's future growth continues to be optimistic. In terms of production capacity planning, Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) currently has a production capacity of nearly 6.6 million tons of polyester (6 million tons of filament and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of staple fiber). In 2022, the company plans to increase the production capacity of 1 million tons of filament and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of staple fiber. At the same time, the company actively arranges the upstream PTA production capacity and creates the PTA polyester filament industrial chain. At present, Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) still has a large-scale filament production capacity in the process of construction, which is gradually released with the new production capacity, Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) 20222024 performance is expected to continue to grow.
Investment advice
Due to the tight global energy supply and demand, the upstream crude oil price center is expected to continue to rise, driving the continuous increase in the cost of polyester filament raw materials, and the price difference between links may continue to be under pressure. However, Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) as a leading filament enterprise still has excess earnings in the industry. Under the situation of low industry prosperity, we lowered the company's profit forecast for 20222023. We expect the company's net profit for 20222024 to be 1.202/12.47/1.42 billion yuan, From 2022 to 2023, the value decreased by 67% and 72% respectively compared with the previous value, the corresponding EPS was 0.79 yuan / 0.82 yuan / 0.93 yuan, and the corresponding PE was 11.8x/11.2x/10x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating of the company.
Risk tips
\u3000\u30001. Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; 2. The epidemic repeatedly affected the company's production and sales volume and the terminal demand was lower than expected; 3. The project progress is less than expected; 4. Fluctuation risk of US dollar exchange rate; 5. Other force majeure effects.
