\u3000\u30003 Anhui Fengyuan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000153) 00015)
Core view
Steady and rapid growth in performance, maintaining high-quality development. In 2021, the company realized a revenue of 15 billion (+ 25.9%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.323 billion (+ 34.8%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 2.783 billion (+ 30.6%). In 2021q4, the revenue was 3.404 billion (+ 1.7%), the net profit attributable to parent was 320 million (+ 79.9%), and the net profit not attributable to parent was 608 million (+ 10.6%). The revenue of Q4 in a single quarter was affected by the high base in the same period last year, the apparent growth rate was slow, and the net profit increased rapidly year-on-year, which was mainly affected by the donation expenditure and goodwill impairment at the end of last year. In 2022q1, the revenue was 4.169 billion (+ 18.7%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 611 million (+ 26.2%), which still maintained a steady growth under the disturbance of the epidemic. The demand for upgrading ophthalmology consumption has been gradually released, the brand influence has been continuously improved, and the situation of epidemic control in China is good, so we can jointly promote the steady growth of performance.
The profitability continued to improve, and the operating cash flow was healthy and stable. The gross profit margin of sales in 2021 was 51.9% (+ 0.9pp), which was mainly due to the scale effect and the increase in the proportion of refractive and optometry business income with high gross profit, and the net profit margin was further increased to 16.5%. The sales expense rate is 9.6% (+ 0.7pp), the management expense rate is 13.1% (+ 1.1pp), and the financial expense rate is 0.7%. In 2021, the R & D investment was 223 million (+ 35.5%), and the company continued to increase the investment in digital transformation, creating “digital ophthalmology” in the fields of digital service, electronic medical record, ophthalmic auxiliary diagnosis and so on. In 2021, the net operating cash flow was 4.08 billion (+ 22.1%), and the ratio to the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 176%, indicating that the company has high-quality and healthy cash flow.
The diopter and optometry business continued to have a high vision and accelerated the construction of a “1 + 8 + n” multi-level hospital system. In 2021, the number of outpatients of the company was 10.2 million (+ 35.1%), and the number of operations was 817000 (+ 17.64%). The revenue of refraction, optometry and cataract business was 5.52 billion yuan (+ 26.9%), 3.38 billion yuan (+ 37.7%) and 2.19 billion yuan (+ 11.7%) respectively. While the volume of refractive surgery increased rapidly, the proportion of high-end surgery such as full femtosecond and ICL further increased, showing the high prospect of both volume and price; The company has invested a lot of human and material resources in the prevention and control of juvenile myopia, and the optometry and service quality of various hospitals have been continuously improved, which has promoted the stable growth of optometry and the rapid improvement of patient satisfaction. In 2021, a total of 27 hospitals were acquired and controlled, and the layout of prefectural and county hospitals and optometry clinics was accelerated. At the same time, the construction of one world-class and eight national regional ophthalmic centers was promoted, and the national hierarchical chain construction of Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) was gradually improved.
Risk tips: covid-19 epidemic impact, M & A integration progress not up to expectations, medical accident risk, etc.
Investment suggestion: slightly reduce the profit forecast and maintain the “buy” rating.
Considering the impact of the epidemic, the profit forecast for 202223 was slightly reduced and the profit forecast for 2024 was added. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 3.02339575175 billion yuan (originally 3.084/4.026 billion yuan in 202223), with a year-on-year growth rate of 30.1/30.9/30.8%. The current stock price corresponds to PE = 65 / 50 / 38x. The company is a leading company in the field of ophthalmic medical services in China, with steady growth in performance, continuous enhancement of brand influence, and has formed a perfect medical teaching and research system. The “Second Entrepreneurship” has been steadily promoted and maintained the “buy in”.
