\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 406 Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) )
Key investment points
The revenue of 2021 / 2022q1 was + 10% / + 17% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 16% / + 88% year-on-year. The performance in 2021 met the market expectation, and the profit end of 2022q1 exceeded the market expectation. In 2021, the revenue reached 42.411 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.15%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.642 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.30%. In 2022q1, the revenue was 5.755 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.95%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 379 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 88.37%. In 2021, the gross profit margin was 26.9%, year-on-year + 0.1pct, and in 2022q1, the gross profit margin was 23.4%, year-on-year + 1.4pct; In 2021, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 13.3%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.7pct. In 2022q1, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 6.6%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.5pct (the expense rate in the corresponding period decreased by 2.6pct to 18.0%). In 2022q1, due to the slight improvement of business structure + the decrease of expense rate, the growth of net profit attributable to the parent company exceeded the market expectation. The annual report announced the business objectives for 2022 and continued the steady style: the revenue was 46.8 billion yuan, an increase of 10%, the operating cost was 34.2 billion yuan, the period expense was 5.1 billion yuan, and the corresponding gross profit margin / period expense rate was 26.9% / 10.9%, which was basically the same year-on-year. In 2021, Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) newly signed orders amounted to 25.66 billion yuan, the same as that of the same period last year; At the end of the period, the orders on hand were 51.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13%. The orders on hand are abundant, which is expected to ensure the realization of the goal.
It is expected to continue the growth trend of new internal and external power systems, and drive the construction of internal and external power systems to grow faster. In 2021, the revenue inside / outside the power grid was 33.03/9.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 7% / + 23%. Overseas affected by the epidemic, the revenue in 2021 was 710 million yuan, with a year-on-year - 16% and a year-on-year gross profit margin of - 6.1pct. In the follow-up, it still expanded steadily and increased incentives. 1) Under the background of the construction of "new power system", the power grid brings structural opportunities, and the directions of UHV, intelligent distribution network and digitization are expected to benefit; In 2022, the two sessions of the State Grid were released. In that year, the planned investment was 501.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6%, and the prosperity was good. 2) The growth rate outside the network is expected to continue to exceed that inside the network, and the proportion of revenue is expected to reach 30% by 2025.
Multiple sub sectors cater to the structural opportunities of "new power system" construction, with strong growth momentum. 1) Power Grid Automation & industrial control: in 2021, the revenue was 23.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11%, and the gross profit margin was 25.6%, a year-on-year increase of -0.8pct. Under the background of "double carbon", the prosperity of sub sectors such as dispatching, distribution network, electricity meter and power grid security has increased. 2) ICT: the revenue was 7.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17%, and the gross profit margin was 20.9%, a year-on-year increase of + 0.8pct. The pace of electric power informatization construction is still advancing rapidly, and Nari continues to assume the core support responsibility of the "energy Internet" strategy of the State Grid. 3) Jibao & Rouzhi: the revenue was 6.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2%, and the gross profit margin was 39.4%, a year-on-year increase of + 1.4pct. During the "14th five year plan" period, the State Grid UHV focuses on the construction of large new energy base projects, with a total investment of more than 380 billion yuan. The Baihetan Jiangsu line is expected to be completed in 2022, and the revenue will be recognized. We expect the new bidding line to be large-scale in 202324, with relatively strong performance sustainability and flexibility. The scale of traditional relay insurance business is relatively stable, and the strategic industry IGBT is expanding steadily. 4) Other sectors: the revenue of power generation & Water Conservancy and environmental protection in 2021 was 2.52 billion yuan, with a year-on-year - 2%, a gross profit margin of 14.8%, and a year-on-year + 1.4pct. Later, we judged that with the stricter requirements for new energy access, it is expected to increase the configuration of relevant secondary equipment, and the dominant position of the company on the power grid side is expected to be copied to the power generation end; Integration & other revenue was 2.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21%, gross profit margin of 39.2%, a year-on-year increase of + 2.7pct.
Profit forecast and investment rating: combined with the company's business plan and the steady investment rhythm of the power grid, we lowered the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 to 6.79 billion yuan (- 160 million yuan) / 7.95 billion yuan (- 220 million yuan) respectively. We expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 will be 9.22 billion yuan, with a same ratio of + 20% / + 17% / + 16% respectively, corresponding to 24 times, 21 times and 18 times of the current price PE respectively. We will give the target price of 36.6 yuan, corresponding to 30 times of PE in 2022, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: macroeconomic downturn, less than expected power grid investment, aggravation of the epidemic in China, etc.
